Bundesliga 2025-2026: Hamburg vs Dortmund Prediction
Hamburg
Home Team
14%
VS
Dortmund
Away Team
74%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5:
48%
Under 2.5:
52%
Goal:
53%
No Goal:
47%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 4 | 29 | 27 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Stuttgart | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Hoffenheim | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | FC Koln | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Ein Frankfurt | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 12 |
| 10 | Union Berlin | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Freiburg | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Wolfsburg | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Hamburg | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | St Pauli | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 7 |
| 16 | M'gladbach | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Mainz | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 5 |
Recent Trends
Hamburg
- Last Match: vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 4)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Wolfsburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Mainz (Goals: 4 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 0)
Dortmund
- Last Match: vs Augsburg (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Mainz (Goals: 2 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Hamburg
Average Expected Goals (xG):
2.03
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.45
# Clean Sheets:
2
Dortmund
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.74
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.22
# Clean Sheets:
3
Key Prediction Insights
In the upcoming Bundesliga clash between Hamburg and Dortmund, the odds heavily favor Dortmund with a 74.0% probability of winning. The prediction suggests a tight game, likely featuring fewer than 2.5 goals, with the probability of such an outcome standing at 48.0%. Currently, Dortmund is in 3rd place with 20 points, while Hamburg is languishing in 13th with only 8 points.
Match Analysis
Hamburg's recent form has been concerning, as they are on a three-game losing streak, suffering defeats to FC Koln (1-4), Wolfsburg (0-1), and RB Leipzig (1-2). Despite scoring an average of 1.5 goals over their last five matches, they have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.0 goals per game. Their expected goals metrics suggest they are capable of creating scoring opportunities, but their inability to convert these chances has been detrimental.
On the other hand, Dortmund has shown resilience, securing victories against Augsburg and FC Koln with clean sheets, though they narrowly lost to Bayern Munich. Dortmund's defensive solidity is highlighted by their three clean sheets in the last five games, and their average goals scored per game stands at 1.8. Their ability to maintain a tight defense, conceding only 1.0 goals per game, could prove decisive in this encounter.
Final Prediction
Dortmund's edge in this matchup is underscored by their strong defensive record and consistent goal-scoring ability. Their recent form, coupled with Hamburg's struggles, paints a picture of a likely Dortmund victory. A key factor to watch will be Dortmund's ability to control the game's tempo and capitalize on Hamburg's defensive vulnerabilities.