Bundesliga 2025-2026: Mainz vs St Pauli Prediction
Mainz
Home Team
55%
VS
St Pauli
Away Team
23%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5:
49%
Under 2.5:
51%
Goal:
51%
No Goal:
49%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 51 | 11 | 40 | 38 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 16 | 13 | 29 |
| 3 | Dortmund | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 29 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 26 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 26 |
| 6 | Stuttgart | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 22 | 3 | 25 |
| 7 | Ein Frankfurt | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 24 |
| 8 | Union Berlin | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 18 |
| 9 | Freiburg | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 17 |
| 10 | FC Koln | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | M'gladbach | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 16 |
| 12 | Werder Bremen | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 16 |
| 13 | Wolfsburg | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 15 |
| 14 | Hamburg | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 15 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | St Pauli | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 11 |
| 17 | Heidenheim | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 30 | -17 | 11 |
| 18 | Mainz | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 7 |
Recent Trends
Mainz
- Last Match: vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 4)
- 4th Last Match: vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 1)
St Pauli
- Last Match: vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 4th Last Match: vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Mainz
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.61
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.10
# Clean Sheets:
0
St Pauli
Average Expected Goals (xG):
0.59
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.06
# Clean Sheets:
0
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Mainz and St Pauli is predicted to lean in favor of the home team, Mainz, with a 55.0% probability of victory. The match is expected to be a low-scoring affair, with a 49.0% probability of staying under 2.5 goals. Currently, Mainz sits at the bottom of the Bundesliga standings in 18th place, while St Pauli is slightly ahead in 16th position, both teams fighting to avoid relegation.
Match Analysis
Mainz has struggled recently, with their last three games resulting in a draw against the formidable Bayern Munich and losses to M'gladbach and Freiburg. Their offensive output has been limited, scoring only two goals in these matches, but their defensive vulnerabilities are a more pressing concern, having conceded seven times. Despite these struggles, Mainz's expected goals metrics suggest they are creating more chances than their goal tally indicates, with an average of 1.608 expected goals in their last five games.
St Pauli, while positioned slightly better in the standings, has also faced a challenging period. They managed a win against Heidenheim and secured a draw against FC Koln, but fell to Bayern Munich. Similar to Mainz, their scoring has been underwhelming, averaging 0.6 goals per game over the last five, while their defense has also been breached frequently, conceding 1.8 goals on average. St Pauli's expected goals figures indicate they are performing close to expectations, but they need to improve both offensively and defensively to secure more points.
Final Prediction
Mainz's edge in this matchup primarily comes from their slightly better underlying metrics in creating chances, which could make the difference against a defensively frail St Pauli. A key factor to watch will be whether Mainz can convert their expected goals into actual goals, capitalizing on home advantage to secure a crucial win in their battle to climb out of the relegation zone.