Bundesliga 2025-2026: Mainz vs Werder Bremen Prediction
Mainz
Home Team
73%
VS
Werder Bremen
Away Team
13%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5:
59%
Under 2.5:
41%
Goal:
56%
No Goal:
44%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 4 | 26 | 24 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | Stuttgart | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Dortmund | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Ein Frankfurt | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Koln | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Werder Bremen | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 11 |
| 10 | Union Berlin | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 | Freiburg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Wolfsburg | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Hamburg | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | St Pauli | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Mainz | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Heidenheim | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 3 |
Recent Trends
Mainz
- Last Match: vs Stuttgart (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Leverkusen (Goals: 3 - 4)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Hamburg (Goals: 0 - 4)
- 4th Last Match: vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Augsburg (Goals: 4 - 1)
Werder Bremen
- Last Match: vs Union Berlin (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs St Pauli (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 4)
- 5th Last Match: vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 3)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Mainz
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.06
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.33
# Clean Sheets:
0
Werder Bremen
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.25
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
3.02
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Mainz and Werder Bremen is predicted to swing in favor of the home team, Mainz, with a 73.0% probability of securing a victory. This prediction suggests a high likelihood of an eventful match, with over 2.5 goals expected at a probability of 59.0%. Currently, Mainz languishes in 16th place, while Werder Bremen sit in 9th in the Bundesliga standings, a testament to their contrasting fortunes so far this season.
Match Analysis
Mainz's recent form has been disappointing, suffering three consecutive losses, including a 4-0 defeat against Hamburg and a narrow 2-1 loss to Stuttgart. Despite scoring three times against Leverkusen, Mainz's defensive frailties have been glaring, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per game in their last five outings. The lack of clean sheets highlights their defensive vulnerabilities, an area they need to address urgently.
On the other hand, Werder Bremen has shown resilience, with two wins and a draw in their last three fixtures. Their recent 1-0 victory over Union Berlin and a similar result against St Pauli underline their ability to secure results. However, Bremen's defense has been porous, conceding an average of 2.5 goals per game over their last five matches. Their offensive output, with an average of 1.75 goals per game, provides them a fighting chance, but they must shore up their defense to climb higher in the league standings.
Final Prediction
Mainz's predicted victory can be attributed to their home advantage and the statistical probability favoring them. The key factor to watch will be whether Mainz can capitalize on Werder Bremen's defensive lapses. Fans should look out for how both teams manage their defensive challenges, which could ultimately determine the outcome of this encounter.