Bundesliga 2025-2026: Mainz vs Wolfsburg Prediction

Mainz

Home Team
63%
VS

Wolfsburg

Away Team
18%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 18 16 2 0 71 14 57 50
2 Dortmund 18 11 6 1 35 17 18 39
3 Hoffenheim 17 10 3 4 35 21 14 33
4 Stuttgart 18 10 3 5 33 26 7 33
5 RB Leipzig 17 10 2 5 33 24 9 32
6 Leverkusen 17 9 2 6 34 25 9 29
7 Ein Frankfurt 18 7 6 5 38 39 -1 27
8 Freiburg 18 6 6 6 29 31 -2 24
9 Union Berlin 18 6 6 6 24 27 -3 24
10 FC Koln 18 5 5 8 27 30 -3 20
11 M'gladbach 18 5 5 8 23 29 -6 20
12 Wolfsburg 18 5 4 9 27 38 -11 19
13 Werder Bremen 17 4 6 7 21 34 -13 18
14 Hamburg 17 4 5 8 17 27 -10 17
15 Augsburg 18 4 4 10 20 35 -15 16
16 Heidenheim 18 3 4 11 17 39 -22 13
17 Mainz 18 2 6 10 18 31 -13 12
18 St Pauli 17 3 3 11 16 31 -15 12

Recent Trends

Mainz ❌ ✅ ⚪ ⚪ ⚪

  • Last Match: ❌ vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Heidenheim (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Union Berlin (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs St Pauli (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 2)

Wolfsburg ⚪ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Heidenheim (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs St Pauli (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 8)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Freiburg (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs M'gladbach (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Mainz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.94
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.16
# Clean Sheets: 1

Wolfsburg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.36
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.99
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Mainz and Wolfsburg is heavily tipped in favor of the home side, with a 63.0% probability of victory for Mainz. Despite their struggles this season, Mainz is expected to capitalize on Wolfsburg's vulnerabilities. The match is also anticipated to be high-scoring, with a 60.0% chance of over 2.5 goals. Currently, Mainz is languishing in 17th place, desperately needing points to avoid relegation, while Wolfsburg holds the 12th spot in the Bundesliga standings.

Match Analysis

Mainz enters this fixture with a mixed bag of recent results. They narrowly lost to FC Koln but managed a home victory against Heidenheim and a draw with Union Berlin. These performances show a team capable of scoring but also one that struggles to maintain defensive solidity. Key to their approach will be replicating the attacking intent suggested by their average expected goals of 1.942 over the last five games, which indicates potential that hasn't fully translated on the pitch. Wolfsburg, on the other hand, has had an equally inconsistent run. They secured a win against St Pauli but have also been on the wrong end of a heavy defeat against Bayern Munich, conceding eight goals. Their defensive frailties are evident, having conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game in their last five outings. Despite this, they possess a slight edge in attack, with an average of 1.4 goals scored per game, which might challenge Mainz's defense.

Final Prediction

Mainz's higher win probability is driven by their need to escape the relegation zone and their relatively better expected goal metrics. Their home advantage could prove pivotal against a Wolfsburg side that's struggled defensively. A key factor to watch will be whether Mainz can convert their expected goals into actual goals, leveraging their attacking potential to secure a much-needed win.