Bundesliga 2026-2027: Schalke 04 vs Mainz Prediction - 17 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Schalke 04

Home Team
27%
VS

Mainz

Away Team
48%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 64%
Under 2.5: 36%
Goal: 67%
No Goal: 33%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 27.4
Expected Spread: -0.5

Why the Model Leans Mainz

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Chance creation (xG data) +14.0 Mainz
Home advantage +12.9 Schalke 04
Attack +8.4 Mainz
Results & dominance +3.2 Mainz
Defense +2.3 Mainz

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 64% for Mainz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Schalke 04 defense +5.1 Over
Mainz attack & chance creation +4.4 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Mainz defense +0.6 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 64% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Freiburg 5 4 1 0 14 4 10 13
2 Dortmund 5 4 1 0 11 4 7 13
3 Bayern Munich 5 3 2 0 16 4 12 11
4 Leverkusen 5 3 1 1 14 8 6 10
5 RB Leipzig 5 3 0 2 15 5 10 9
6 Augsburg 5 2 2 1 13 8 5 8
7 Werder Bremen 5 2 2 1 10 10 0 8
8 Mainz 5 2 1 2 13 10 3 7
9 Elversberg 5 2 1 2 8 8 0 7
10 FC Koln 5 2 1 2 8 10 -2 7
11 Stuttgart 5 2 0 3 8 9 -1 6
12 Hamburg 5 2 0 3 5 15 -10 6
13 Schalke 04 5 1 2 2 4 6 -2 5
14 Ein Frankfurt 5 1 2 2 9 16 -7 5
15 Paderborn 5 1 1 3 3 7 -4 4
16 Union Berlin 5 1 1 3 5 17 -12 4
17 Hoffenheim 5 1 0 4 9 13 -4 3
18 M'gladbach 5 0 0 5 7 18 -11 0

Recent Trends

Schalke 04 L D W D L

  • Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Elversberg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Augsburg (Goals: 0 - 3)

Mainz L W L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Hamburg (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Paderborn (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Schalke 04

xG (avg) 0.76
xGA (avg) 1.42
Clean Sheets 2

Mainz

xG (avg) 3.38
xGA (avg) 1.67
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Mainz are the likeliest winners at 48%, ahead of a Schalke 04 win at 27% and a draw at 24%. The goals outlook leans over 2.5, with a probability of 64%.

Match Analysis

Mainz’s stronger chance creation is the main difference between the sides, though Schalke 04 have home advantage. Mainz have averaged 3.4 xG away from home, and their away goal average of 4.5 is higher still, suggesting they have been finishing above the level of chances created. There are warning signs in Mainz’s defending: they lost 3-4 to Leverkusen most recently, after a 4-3 win at M'gladbach. Schalke 04, meanwhile, have scored only four goals in five league matches. Their latest result was a 1-2 defeat at Freiburg, following a 0-0 draw with Elversberg at home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Schalke 04
Goals in last 5 matches
Mainz
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 64%. Schalke 04’s defensive profile and Mainz’s attack both point toward goals, while Mainz have conceded seven across their two latest matches.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Schalke 04
Corners in last 5 matches
Mainz
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.2 corners. Recent totals have varied, including seven in Mainz’s match with Leverkusen and ten against M'gladbach.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Schalke 04
Shots in last 5 matches
Mainz
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 27 shots in total. Mainz’s latest match produced 39 shots between the teams, a sign of the volume they can generate.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Schalke 04 wins by X goals. Negative = Mainz wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Schalke 04 vs Mainz with expected spread of -0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Schalke 04 vs Mainz
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Mainz are favoured by about half a goal, with the expected margin at 0.5 goals in their favour.

Final Prediction

Schalke 04’s clearest route to changing the outlook is to take advantage of Mainz’s recent defensive openness. But their low scoring return so far makes that a significant challenge.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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