Bundesliga 2026-2027: Werder Bremen vs Paderborn Prediction - 17 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Werder Bremen

Home Team
58%
VS

Paderborn

Away Team
19%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 10.4
Expected Shots: 30.5
Expected Spread: +0.7

Why the Model Leans Werder Bremen

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Werder Bremen
Defense +5.1 Werder Bremen
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.7 Werder Bremen
Chance creation (xG data) +3.4 Werder Bremen
Attack +1.7 Werder Bremen

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 75% for Werder Bremen. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Paderborn defense +4.0 Over
Werder Bremen attack & chance creation +3.6 Over
Paderborn attack & chance creation +2.9 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Werder Bremen defense +0.8 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Freiburg 5 4 1 0 14 4 10 13
2 Dortmund 5 4 1 0 11 4 7 13
3 Bayern Munich 5 3 2 0 16 4 12 11
4 Leverkusen 5 3 1 1 14 8 6 10
5 RB Leipzig 5 3 0 2 15 5 10 9
6 Augsburg 5 2 2 1 13 8 5 8
7 Werder Bremen 5 2 2 1 10 10 0 8
8 Mainz 5 2 1 2 13 10 3 7
9 Elversberg 5 2 1 2 8 8 0 7
10 FC Koln 5 2 1 2 8 10 -2 7
11 Stuttgart 5 2 0 3 8 9 -1 6
12 Hamburg 5 2 0 3 5 15 -10 6
13 Schalke 04 5 1 2 2 4 6 -2 5
14 Ein Frankfurt 5 1 2 2 9 16 -7 5
15 Paderborn 5 1 1 3 3 7 -4 4
16 Union Berlin 5 1 1 3 5 17 -12 4
17 Hoffenheim 5 1 0 4 9 13 -4 3
18 M'gladbach 5 0 0 5 7 18 -11 0

Recent Trends

Werder Bremen D W D W L

  • Last Match: D vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Augsburg (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs FC Koln (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 4)

Paderborn L W L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Stuttgart (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Freiburg (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Mainz (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Werder Bremen

xG (avg) 1.57
xGA (avg) 1.16
Clean Sheets 0

Paderborn

xG (avg) 0.50
xGA (avg) 2.35
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Werder Bremen are favored to win at 58%, with a draw at 23% and a Paderborn win at 19%. Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 58%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage and the defensive comparison favor Werder Bremen. Paderborn’s away defending looks more vulnerable, giving Werder a chance to put its home pressure and chance creation to use. Werder have averaged 3.0 goals at home against 1.6 expected goals, suggesting their finishing has run ahead of the chances created. Werder arrive after a 2-2 draw away to Dortmund, following a 3-2 home win over Augsburg. They have not kept a clean sheet in their last five, which leaves room for Paderborn to threaten. Paderborn’s latest result was a 0-2 loss to Stuttgart, after a 3-1 win over Hoffenheim. Their ability to turn chances into goals will matter against a home side that has been scoring freely.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Werder Bremen
Goals in last 5 matches
Paderborn
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is favored at 58%. Paderborn’s defensive vulnerability is the strongest push toward a higher total, with Werder Bremen’s attack and chance creation also supporting that lean. Paderborn’s own chance creation is the main counterweight.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Werder Bremen
Corners in last 5 matches
Paderborn
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 10.4 corners in total. Recent matches have shown plenty of corner activity, including 12 in Werder Bremen’s draw with Dortmund and 12 in Paderborn’s loss to Stuttgart.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Werder Bremen
Shots in last 5 matches
Paderborn
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 31 shots in total. Recent games have featured high volume, with 32 shots in Werder Bremen’s 2-2 draw against Dortmund and 42 in Paderborn’s 0-2 loss to Stuttgart.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Werder Bremen wins by X goals. Negative = Paderborn wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Werder Bremen vs Paderborn with expected spread of +0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Werder Bremen vs Paderborn
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.7 goals in Werder Bremen’s favour. That points to a home advantage, though the win probabilities leave room for a draw.

Final Prediction

Paderborn could upset the forecast if it exploits Werder Bremen’s run without a clean sheet and reproduces the finishing it showed in the 3-1 win over Hoffenheim.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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