Bundesliga 2025-2026: Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich Prediction - 9 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Wolfsburg

Home Team
14%
VS

Bayern Munich

Away Team
71%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 76%
Under 2.5: 24%
Goal: 63%
No Goal: 37%
Expected Corners: 10.5
Expected Shots: 29.3
Expected Spread: -1.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 32 26 5 1 116 35 81 83
2 Dortmund 32 20 7 5 65 32 33 67
3 RB Leipzig 32 19 5 8 63 42 21 62
4 Leverkusen 32 17 7 8 66 43 23 58
5 Stuttgart 32 17 7 8 66 46 20 58
6 Hoffenheim 32 17 7 8 64 48 16 58
7 Freiburg 32 12 8 12 45 53 -8 44
8 Ein Frankfurt 32 11 10 11 57 60 -3 43
9 Augsburg 32 11 7 14 42 56 -14 40
10 Mainz 32 9 10 13 41 50 -9 37
11 M'gladbach 32 8 11 13 37 50 -13 35
12 Hamburg 32 8 10 14 36 51 -15 34
13 Union Berlin 32 8 9 15 37 57 -20 33
14 FC Koln 32 7 11 14 47 55 -8 32
15 Werder Bremen 32 8 8 16 37 57 -20 32
16 Wolfsburg 32 6 8 18 42 67 -25 26
17 St Pauli 32 6 8 18 27 55 -28 26
18 Heidenheim 32 5 8 19 38 69 -31 23

Recent Trends

Wolfsburg D D W L L

  • Last Match: D vs Freiburg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Leverkusen (Goals: 3 - 6)

Bayern Munich D W W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Heidenheim (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Mainz (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Stuttgart (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs St Pauli (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Wolfsburg

xG (avg) 1.92
xGA (avg) 1.13
Clean Sheets 1

Bayern Munich

xG (avg) 2.43
xGA (avg) 1.94
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Bayern Munich, top of the Bundesliga with 83 points, are strong favourites to win away at 16th-placed Wolfsburg, with a 71.0% probability of an away victory and just 14.0% for the hosts. The expected goal spread sits at -1.23 in Bayern’s favour, underlining the gulf between a title-chasing side and a team fighting relegation. The match is also projected to be open and attacking, with an over 2.5 prediction at 76.0% likelihood.

Match Analysis

Wolfsburg come into this under heavy pressure but with some recent resilience: a 2-1 away win at Union Berlin followed by gritty draws against M’gladbach (0-0) and Freiburg (1-1). Defensively they’ve tightened up on the scoreboard, conceding just two goals across those three games, even if they allowed 25 shots at Union and 11 at Freiburg, hinting at a back line still living dangerously. Their last five matches show they score only 0.8 goals per game while conceding 1.6, but the xG numbers (1.916 created vs 1.126 conceded on average) suggest they’re actually producing more than they finish and limiting chances better than the raw goals imply. Bayern’s recent form is typically explosive in attack but far from watertight at the back. A 4-2 win over Stuttgart and a 4-3 win at Mainz were followed by a wild 3-3 draw with bottom side Heidenheim, with all three games turning into shootouts. Over their last five, Bayern are averaging 3.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, backed up by 2.432 xG for and 1.936 xG against per match – huge attacking output, but a defence that offers opportunities. That balance of relentless forward play and vulnerability should suit a Wolfsburg side that can generate decent xG but has struggled to convert.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Wolfsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Goals in last 5 matches
The model clearly leans to an over 2.5 prediction with a 76.0% chance of at least three goals. Two of Wolfsburg’s last three games stayed under 2.5 (0-0 vs M’gladbach, 1-1 at Freiburg), with only the 2-1 win at Union edging over. Bayern, by contrast, have gone over 2.5 in all of their last three (4-2, 4-3, 3-3), aligned with their 3.2 scored and 1.6 conceded per game and strong xG numbers; that combination heavily favours another high-scoring contest rather than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Wolfsburg
Corners in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to an open game, with expected total corners at 10.46. Wolfsburg’s recent matches were fairly corner-heavy: 8-5 vs M’gladbach, 7-1 at Freiburg and 4-11 at Union, showing they can both create and concede plenty from wide areas. Bayern’s last three produced 13-5, 4-4 and 11-3, reflecting a side that attacks constantly and pins opponents back; that high-tempo, front-foot style supports the forecast of double-digit predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Wolfsburg
Shots in last 5 matches
Bayern Munich
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 29.3, in line with both teams’ recent patterns. Wolfsburg’s last three saw shot counts of 13-11, 12-10 and 5-25, often allowing opponents to rack up attempts while trying to be efficient themselves. Bayern’s attacking volume has been huge – 28 shots vs Stuttgart, 23 vs Heidenheim and 11 at Mainz – and ties neatly into their high xG figures; a shots prediction close to 30 makes sense in a game where Bayern should dominate chances and Wolfsburg will look to counter.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Wolfsburg wins by X goals. Negative = Bayern Munich wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich with expected spread of -1.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction of -1.23 indicates Bayern are expected to win by roughly a goal to a goal and a half. Recent scorelines back this up: Bayern’s last three have all been multi-goal thrillers with a +4 goal difference overall, while Wolfsburg’s are tighter, with a modest +2 across three games but far lower scoring. Combined with Bayern’s 71.0% win probability and their far superior attack, the expected spread clearly tilts toward a comfortable away victory, even if their leaky defence may keep Wolfsburg interested.

Final Prediction

Bayern’s edge lies in sheer firepower: 116 league goals, 3.2 per game in recent weeks, and sustained attacking pressure that Wolfsburg’s fragile defence may struggle to handle over 90 minutes. Wolfsburg’s improved performances and underlying xG offer a glimmer of hope, but the difference in quality and form points firmly towards Bayern. The key factor to watch will be how long Wolfsburg can resist Bayern’s early waves; if the visitors score first, this could quickly turn into another high-scoring Bayern showcase.

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