Bundesliga 2026-2027: Leverkusen vs Freiburg Prediction - 18 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Leverkusen

Home Team
53%
VS

Freiburg

Away Team
22%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 62%
No Goal: 38%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 26.6
Expected Spread: +0.6

Why the Model Leans Leverkusen

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Leverkusen
Attack +3.5 Leverkusen
Results & dominance +2.4 Leverkusen
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.0 Leverkusen
Chance creation (xG data) +1.6 Leverkusen

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 70% for Leverkusen. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Leverkusen attack & chance creation +8.5 Over
Freiburg defense +3.2 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Freiburg attack & chance creation +1.4 Over
Form & results +0.9 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Freiburg 5 4 1 0 14 4 10 13
2 Dortmund 5 4 1 0 11 4 7 13
3 Bayern Munich 5 3 2 0 16 4 12 11
4 Leverkusen 5 3 1 1 14 8 6 10
5 RB Leipzig 5 3 0 2 15 5 10 9
6 Augsburg 5 2 2 1 13 8 5 8
7 Werder Bremen 5 2 2 1 10 10 0 8
8 Mainz 5 2 1 2 13 10 3 7
9 Elversberg 5 2 1 2 8 8 0 7
10 FC Koln 5 2 1 2 8 10 -2 7
11 Stuttgart 5 2 0 3 8 9 -1 6
12 Hamburg 5 2 0 3 5 15 -10 6
13 Schalke 04 5 1 2 2 4 6 -2 5
14 Ein Frankfurt 5 1 2 2 9 16 -7 5
15 Paderborn 5 1 1 3 3 7 -4 4
16 Union Berlin 5 1 1 3 5 17 -12 4
17 Hoffenheim 5 1 0 4 9 13 -4 3
18 M'gladbach 5 0 0 5 7 18 -11 0

Recent Trends

Leverkusen W W D W L

  • Last Match: W vs Mainz (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Elversberg (Goals: 2 - 3)

Freiburg W D W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Schalke 04 (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Paderborn (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 4 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Leverkusen

xG (avg) 2.97
xGA (avg) 0.59
Clean Sheets 2

Freiburg

xG (avg) 2.05
xGA (avg) 1.41
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Leverkusen are favoured to win at 53%, with a draw at 25% and a Freiburg win at 22%. The lean is toward over 2.5 goals, at 59%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage and Leverkusen’s attacking output are the clearest differences in the forecast. They have scored 14 goals in five league matches, and their recent home games have brought an average of 3.0 goals scored and none conceded. Freiburg have also scored 14 times, so Leverkusen will need to make their home threat count against a side that has started the season strongly. Leverkusen’s latest result, a 4-3 win away to Mainz, followed a 2-0 home victory over RB Leipzig. Freiburg are unbeaten in five league games and most recently beat Schalke 04 2-1. Their away numbers offer Leverkusen an opening: Freiburg average 1.0 goals conceded away from home, while Leverkusen’s home chance creation has been strong. Freiburg’s two clean sheets in their last five matches, however, point to a defence capable of resisting pressure.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Leverkusen
Goals in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 59%. Leverkusen’s attack and chance creation are the strongest reason to expect goals, though Freiburg’s defensive record gives the under some support.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Leverkusen
Corners in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.9 corners. Leverkusen’s recent matches have included high corner counts, including 14 in their draw with Augsburg, while Freiburg have generally recorded more modest totals.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Leverkusen
Shots in last 5 matches
Freiburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected total is about 27 shots. Leverkusen’s recent games have featured plenty of attempts, including 30 against Augsburg, while Freiburg had 22 shots away to Ein Frankfurt.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Leverkusen wins by X goals. Negative = Freiburg wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Leverkusen vs Freiburg with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Leverkusen vs Freiburg
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about half a goal in Leverkusen’s favour. That fits the home side’s advantage, while leaving room for Freiburg’s unbeaten start to matter.

Final Prediction

Freiburg’s ability to limit Leverkusen’s chances could change the forecast. Their two clean sheets in five matches show they can make the home side’s attacking edge less decisive.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel