Bundesliga 2026-2027: Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen Prediction - 25 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Hoffenheim

Home Team
33%
VS

Leverkusen

Away Team
40%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 66%
Under 2.5: 34%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 28.7
Expected Spread: +0.0

Why the Model Leans Leverkusen

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Hoffenheim
Chance creation (xG data) +8.1 Leverkusen
Attack +4.2 Leverkusen
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.5 Leverkusen
Defense +2.5 Leverkusen

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Leverkusen. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Leverkusen attack & chance creation +8.3 Over
Hoffenheim attack & chance creation +7.3 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Form & results +1.2 Under
Hoffenheim defense +1.2 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 66% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern Munich 6 4 2 0 22 5 17 14
2 Dortmund 6 4 2 0 11 4 7 14
3 Freiburg 6 4 1 1 15 6 9 13
4 Leverkusen 6 4 1 1 16 9 7 13
5 Mainz 6 3 1 2 14 10 4 10
6 Elversberg 6 3 1 2 12 11 1 10
7 RB Leipzig 6 3 0 3 16 11 5 9
8 Werder Bremen 6 2 3 1 12 12 0 9
9 Stuttgart 7 3 0 4 9 10 -1 9
10 Hamburg 6 3 0 3 6 15 -9 9
11 Augsburg 6 2 2 2 16 12 4 8
12 Ein Frankfurt 6 2 2 2 10 16 -6 8
13 FC Koln 6 2 1 3 8 11 -3 7
14 Hoffenheim 6 2 0 4 11 14 -3 6
15 Schalke 04 6 1 2 3 4 7 -3 5
16 Paderborn 6 1 2 3 5 9 -4 5
17 Union Berlin 6 1 2 3 5 17 -12 5
18 M'gladbach 7 0 0 7 8 21 -13 0

Recent Trends

Hoffenheim W L L W L

  • Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Hamburg (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Paderborn (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Stuttgart (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 2 - 3)

Leverkusen W W W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Freiburg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Mainz (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Augsburg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Union Berlin (Goals: 4 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Hoffenheim

xG (avg) 2.02
xGA (avg) 2.07
Clean Sheets 0

Leverkusen

xG (avg) 2.27
xGA (avg) 1.47
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Leverkusen are the likeliest winners at 40%, ahead of Hoffenheim at 33%, with the draw at 27%. The goals forecast leans over 2.5, at 66%.

Match Analysis

Hoffenheim’s home advantage is balanced by Leverkusen’s stronger chance creation and attack. Hoffenheim have scored 2.0 goals per home game recently but conceded 2.3, and they have not kept a clean sheet in their last five matches. Leverkusen have also been vulnerable away from home, conceding 2.7 goals per game there, though their 2.3 expected goals per away game suggests their scoring has run ahead of their chances. Hoffenheim’s latest result was a 2-1 win away at M'gladbach, following defeats to Hamburg, 2-3 at home, and Paderborn, 1-3 away. Leverkusen arrive with three straight wins: most recently 2-1 over Freiburg, after a 4-3 win at Mainz and a 2-0 victory over RB Leipzig.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Hoffenheim
Goals in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 66%. The strongest reason is the attacking threat from both sides, with Leverkusen’s attack and chance creation particularly supporting a higher total.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Hoffenheim
Corners in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 9.0 corners. Leverkusen’s recent matches have ranged from 7 to 15 total corners, making that forecast a reasonable midpoint.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Hoffenheim
Shots in last 5 matches
Leverkusen
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 29 shots. Both teams have reached at least 30 combined shots in two of their last three matches.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Hoffenheim wins by X goals. Negative = Leverkusen wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen with expected spread of +0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected goal margin is effectively level, at 0.0 goals in Hoffenheim’s favour. That near-even margin sits alongside Leverkusen’s slightly higher chance of winning.

Final Prediction

Hoffenheim’s home scoring and Leverkusen’s away defensive record could narrow the gap. If Hoffenheim turn their home chances into goals, Leverkusen’s recent run of wins may not be enough to secure the points.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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