Ligue 1 2026-2027: Lyon vs Angers Prediction - 1 Nov 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Lyon

Home Team
69%
VS

Angers

Away Team
13%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 64%
Under 2.5: 36%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 26.6
Expected Spread: +0.8

Why the Model Leans Lyon

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Lyon
Chance creation (xG data) +7.8 Lyon
Attack +5.3 Lyon
Defense +4.5 Lyon
Results & dominance +2.6 Lyon

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 84% for Lyon. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Lyon attack & chance creation +4.4 Over
Angers defense +3.3 Over
Form & results +2.8 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Angers attack & chance creation +1.0 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 64% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 9 6 2 1 21 10 11 20
2 Rennes 9 5 1 3 20 19 1 16
3 Lille 8 4 3 1 11 6 5 15
4 Monaco 8 4 3 1 11 7 4 15
5 Lyon 8 4 2 2 13 7 6 14
6 Paris FC 8 4 2 2 13 9 4 14
7 Nice 9 4 2 3 13 12 1 14
8 Lens 8 4 1 3 16 12 4 13
9 Marseille 8 4 0 4 18 13 5 12
10 Lorient 8 3 3 2 7 6 1 12
11 Toulouse 8 2 4 2 12 11 1 10
12 Auxerre 8 3 1 4 12 18 -6 10
13 Brest 8 2 3 3 14 12 2 9
14 Angers 8 2 2 4 9 15 -6 8
15 Le Mans 8 1 4 3 11 16 -5 7
16 Strasbourg 8 2 1 5 12 18 -6 7
17 Troyes 8 1 2 5 5 16 -11 5
18 Le Havre 9 0 2 7 9 20 -11 2

Recent Trends

Lyon L W L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Rennes (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 0)

Angers D L L W D

  • Last Match: D vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Troyes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lyon

xG (avg) 2.62
xGA (avg) 1.09
Clean Sheets 2

Angers

xG (avg) 1.15
xGA (avg) 2.28
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Lyon are favored to win at 69%, with a draw at 18% and an Angers victory at 13%. The goals outlook leans over 2.5, at 64%.

Match Analysis

Lyon’s home advantage is reinforced by the gap in chance creation. They have averaged 2.6 expected goals at home, while Angers have conceded 2.3 expected goals away from home. That points to opportunities for Lyon to build attacks against a defence that has conceded 15 goals in eight league matches. Lyon’s latest outing was a 0-2 loss to Paris SG, after a 2-1 win over Nice and a 1-2 defeat to Lens. Angers most recently drew 0-0 with Lorient, following losses of 2-5 to Marseille and 1-5 to Brest. Those heavy defeats highlight a defensive weakness Lyon can target.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lyon
Goals in last 5 matches
Angers
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is favored at 64%. Lyon’s home attack and chance creation, combined with Angers’ defensive record, are the clearest reasons for that lean, though Angers’ own attack points slightly the other way.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lyon
Corners in last 5 matches
Angers
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 10.2 corners. Recent matches offer a reason for that estimate, with nine corners for Nice against Lyon and 13 in Angers’ draw with Lorient.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lyon
Shots in last 5 matches
Angers
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 27 shots. Recent matches have produced plenty of attempts, including 25 in Lyon’s game against Paris SG and 32 in Angers’ meeting with Marseille.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Lyon wins by X goals. Negative = Angers wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Lyon vs Angers with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Lyon vs Angers
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is 0.8 goals in Lyon’s favour, consistent with the home side’s clear lead in the win probabilities.

Final Prediction

Angers’ most plausible route to changing the forecast is to convert their away chances efficiently. Their away scoring has been stronger than their chance creation suggests, which could punish a lapse in Lyon’s generally solid home defence.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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