Ligue 1 2026-2027: Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain Prediction - 30 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Le Havre

Home Team
12%
VS

Paris Saint-Germain

Away Team
74%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 65%
Under 2.5: 35%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 29.9
Expected Spread: -1.2

Why the Model Leans Paris Saint-Germain

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Defense +13.5 Paris Saint-Germain
Chance creation (xG data) +13.1 Paris Saint-Germain
Home advantage +12.9 Le Havre
Attack +8.9 Paris Saint-Germain
Results & dominance +6.8 Paris Saint-Germain

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 86% for Paris Saint-Germain. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Paris Saint-Germain attack & chance creation +7.0 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Le Havre defense +1.5 Over
Form & results +1.1 Over
Paris Saint-Germain defense +1.0 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 65% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 8 5 2 1 16 9 7 17
2 Rennes 8 5 1 2 18 14 4 16
3 Lille 8 4 3 1 11 6 5 15
4 Monaco 8 4 3 1 11 7 4 15
5 Lyon 8 4 2 2 13 7 6 14
6 Paris FC 8 4 2 2 13 9 4 14
7 Lens 8 4 1 3 16 12 4 13
8 Marseille 8 4 0 4 18 13 5 12
9 Lorient 8 3 3 2 7 6 1 12
10 Nice 8 3 2 3 8 10 -2 11
11 Toulouse 8 2 4 2 12 11 1 10
12 Auxerre 8 3 1 4 12 18 -6 10
13 Brest 8 2 3 3 14 12 2 9
14 Angers 8 2 2 4 9 15 -6 8
15 Le Mans 8 1 4 3 11 16 -5 7
16 Strasbourg 8 2 1 5 12 18 -6 7
17 Troyes 8 1 2 5 5 16 -11 5
18 Le Havre 8 0 2 6 8 15 -7 2

Recent Trends

Le Havre L L L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 0)

Paris Saint-Germain W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Lyon (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Strasbourg (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Le Mans (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Brest (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Le Havre

xG (avg) 1.22
xGA (avg) 1.78
Clean Sheets 1

Paris Saint-Germain

xG (avg) 2.54
xGA (avg) 1.40
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Paris SG are clear favourites, with a 74% chance of winning, compared with 12% for Le Havre and 14% for a draw. The goals outlook leans over 2.5, at 65%.

Match Analysis

Paris SG’s stronger chance creation and defending are the clearest separation between the sides. They have averaged 2.0 goals away from home, while Le Havre have conceded 1.5 per home match. Home advantage offers Le Havre some support, but their defence will need to cope with a visiting attack that has scored freely in recent weeks. Le Havre have lost three straight, including a 4-3 defeat at Marseille, a 3-1 home loss to Auxerre and a 1-0 defeat at Lille. Paris SG have won three in a row: most recently 2-0 against Lyon, following 3-1 wins over Strasbourg and Le Mans.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Le Havre
Goals in last 5 matches
Paris Saint-Germain
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 65%. Paris SG’s attack and chance creation provide the strongest push towards a higher-scoring game, with Le Havre’s defensive record adding to that case.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Le Havre
Corners in last 5 matches
Paris Saint-Germain
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 9.0 corners in total. Recent combined counts include seven in Le Havre’s match at Marseille and 11 in Paris SG’s win over Lyon, pointing to a total around that mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Le Havre
Shots in last 5 matches
Paris Saint-Germain
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Around 30 shots are projected. Recent matches have featured substantial volume, including 33 combined shots in Le Havre’s 4-3 loss at Marseille and 35 in Paris SG’s 3-1 win over Strasbourg.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Le Havre wins by X goals. Negative = Paris Saint-Germain wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain with expected spread of -1.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 1.2 goals in Paris SG’s favour.

Final Prediction

Le Havre’s best route to changing the forecast is to turn home chances into goals. They have averaged 0.5 goals at home despite creating 1.2 expected goals, so better finishing could make their home advantage count.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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