Bundesliga 2026-2027: Hamburg vs Stuttgart Prediction - 17 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Hamburg

Home Team
33%
VS

Stuttgart

Away Team
40%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 64%
Under 2.5: 36%
Goal: 62%
No Goal: 38%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 30.4
Expected Spread: -0.3

Why the Model Leans Stuttgart

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Hamburg
Attack +5.5 Stuttgart
Chance creation (xG data) +4.7 Stuttgart
Results & dominance +3.8 Stuttgart
Defense +3.3 Stuttgart

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Stuttgart. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Stuttgart defense +8.3 Over
Hamburg attack & chance creation +5.5 Under
Stuttgart attack & chance creation +5.0 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Hamburg defense +1.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 64% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Freiburg 5 4 1 0 14 4 10 13
2 Dortmund 5 4 1 0 11 4 7 13
3 Bayern Munich 5 3 2 0 16 4 12 11
4 Leverkusen 5 3 1 1 14 8 6 10
5 RB Leipzig 5 3 0 2 15 5 10 9
6 Augsburg 5 2 2 1 13 8 5 8
7 Werder Bremen 5 2 2 1 10 10 0 8
8 Mainz 5 2 1 2 13 10 3 7
9 Elversberg 5 2 1 2 8 8 0 7
10 FC Koln 5 2 1 2 8 10 -2 7
11 Stuttgart 5 2 0 3 8 9 -1 6
12 Hamburg 5 2 0 3 5 15 -10 6
13 Schalke 04 5 1 2 2 4 6 -2 5
14 Ein Frankfurt 5 1 2 2 9 16 -7 5
15 Paderborn 5 1 1 3 3 7 -4 4
16 Union Berlin 5 1 1 3 5 17 -12 4
17 Hoffenheim 5 1 0 4 9 13 -4 3
18 M'gladbach 5 0 0 5 7 18 -11 0

Recent Trends

Hamburg W W L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs RB Leipzig (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Mainz (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 2)

Stuttgart W L L W L

  • Last Match: W vs Paderborn (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Dortmund (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs FC Koln (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 5)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Hamburg

xG (avg) 1.17
xGA (avg) 2.72
Clean Sheets 0

Stuttgart

xG (avg) 2.17
xGA (avg) 3.04
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Stuttgart are the likeliest winners at 40%, with Hamburg at 33% and a draw at 27%. The lean is to over 2.5 goals, at 64%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage gives Hamburg a route into the match, but their defensive record is a concern: they have conceded 15 goals in five league games. Stuttgart’s attack and chance creation are the main reasons to favour the visitors, while their own defensive issues could give Hamburg openings. Hamburg have won their last two, beating FC Koln 2-1 and then Hoffenheim 3-2 away, after a 0-5 defeat at RB Leipzig. Stuttgart’s 2-0 win at Paderborn followed defeats to Dortmund and Hoffenheim. Away from home, Stuttgart have scored 1.3 goals despite creating 2.2 expected goals, so their chances have been better than their returns suggest.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Hamburg
Goals in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 64%. Stuttgart’s defensive vulnerability is the strongest reason, and Hamburg have also conceded regularly, with no clean sheet in their last five matches.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Hamburg
Corners in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.1 corners. Recent matches have produced between eight and 14 corners in Hamburg’s games, and between eight and 12 in Stuttgart’s.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Hamburg
Shots in last 5 matches
Stuttgart
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 30 shots. Recent match totals have ranged from 25 to 42, suggesting both sides can contribute to a busy shooting count.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Hamburg wins by X goals. Negative = Stuttgart wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Hamburg vs Stuttgart with expected spread of -0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Hamburg vs Stuttgart
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.3 goals in Stuttgart’s favour. That is a narrow advantage, consistent with the visitors’ higher win probability.

Final Prediction

Hamburg’s best chance to overturn the forecast is to make Stuttgart pay for their defensive lapses. The hosts have scored in each of their last two games, while Stuttgart have conceded in two of their last three.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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