La Liga 2026-2027: La Coruna vs Levante Prediction - 16 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

La Coruna

Home Team
49%
VS

Levante

Away Team
25%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 10.4
Expected Shots: 26.1
Expected Spread: +0.5

Why the Model Leans La Coruna

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 La Coruna
Defense +3.0 La Coruna
Attack +1.9 Levante
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +0.9 La Coruna
Chance creation (xG data) +0.8 La Coruna

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 66% for La Coruna. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Levante defense +3.8 Over
Levante attack & chance creation +2.5 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
La Coruna defense +1.1 Under
Form & results +0.9 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 8 8 0 0 34 7 27 24
2 Ath Madrid 8 6 1 1 18 8 10 19
3 Betis 8 6 1 1 14 9 5 19
4 Real Madrid 8 6 0 2 19 8 11 18
5 Sevilla 8 4 2 2 13 12 1 14
6 Sociedad 8 4 1 3 12 15 -3 13
7 Alaves 8 3 2 3 12 8 4 11
8 La Coruna 8 2 4 2 12 11 1 10
9 Celta 8 1 5 2 8 6 2 8
10 Betis 6 2 2 2 7 6 1 8
11 Villarreal 8 2 2 4 13 13 0 8
12 Espanol 8 2 2 4 11 11 0 8
13 Vallecano 7 2 2 3 11 16 -5 8
14 Getafe 8 2 2 4 4 10 -6 8
15 Santander 8 2 2 4 13 23 -10 8
16 Osasuna 8 2 2 4 8 18 -10 8
17 Levante 7 1 3 3 11 15 -4 6
18 Elche 8 1 3 4 11 17 -6 6
19 Valencia 8 1 2 5 6 15 -9 5
20 Malaga 8 0 4 4 4 13 -9 4

Recent Trends

La Coruna L D L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Villarreal (Goals: 3 - 2)

Levante D L L D W

  • Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Malaga (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Betis (Goals: 5 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

La Coruna

xG (avg) 0.97
xGA (avg) 1.11
Clean Sheets 0

Levante

xG (avg) 0.90
xGA (avg) 2.23
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

La Coruna are the most likely winners at 49%, with a draw at 26% and a Levante victory at 25%. The goals forecast leans over 2.5, at 56%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest separator, with La Coruna also holding a small defensive edge. Levante’s attack offers a counterweight, but the visitors’ away scoring has been limited: they average 0.3 goals from 0.9 expected goals away from home, suggesting their finishing has lagged behind their chances. La Coruna’s latest match was a 2-3 defeat away to Sociedad, after a 1-1 home draw with Betis. They have kept no clean sheets in their last five matches. Levante’s latest outing ended 3-3 against Sevilla, following defeats by Villarreal, 1-3, and Barcelona, 2-4. Those results underline the visitors’ vulnerability at the back, even as their recent scoring gives them a route into the contest.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

La Coruna
Goals in last 5 matches
Levante
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 56%. Levante’s defensive record is the strongest reason for that outlook, while its attack and chance creation also point toward goals. La Coruna’s recent clean-sheet drought adds to the risk of both sides scoring.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

La Coruna
Corners in last 5 matches
Levante
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 10.4 corners in total. La Coruna’s latest match produced 17 corners, including 10 for La Coruna, while Levante’s 3-3 draw with Sevilla had seven.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

La Coruna
Shots in last 5 matches
Levante
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected total is 26 shots. La Coruna had 21 in its latest match, and Levante recorded 20 against Sevilla, pointing to the potential for a busy game.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = La Coruna wins by X goals. Negative = Levante wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for La Coruna vs Levante with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for La Coruna vs Levante
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
La Coruna are favoured by about 0.5 goals. That reflects the home advantage and defensive edge, while the close win probabilities leave room for a draw or a narrow Levante result.

Final Prediction

La Coruna’s failure to keep a clean sheet in five matches could be decisive. If Levante turn more of their away chances into goals, they can overturn the home-side lean.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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