La Liga 2026-2027: Osasuna vs Santander Prediction - 18 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Osasuna

Home Team
49%
VS

Santander

Away Team
25%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.1
Expected Spread: +0.5

Why the Model Leans Osasuna

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Osasuna
Defense +4.6 Osasuna
Attack +2.4 Santander
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.9 Osasuna
Results & dominance +1.1 Osasuna

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 67% for Osasuna. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Santander defense +9.7 Over
Osasuna attack & chance creation +4.0 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Santander attack & chance creation +0.8 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 8 8 0 0 34 7 27 24
2 Ath Madrid 8 6 1 1 18 8 10 19
3 Betis 8 6 1 1 14 9 5 19
4 Real Madrid 8 6 0 2 19 8 11 18
5 Sevilla 8 4 2 2 13 12 1 14
6 Sociedad 8 4 1 3 12 15 -3 13
7 Alaves 8 3 2 3 12 8 4 11
8 La Coruna 8 2 4 2 12 11 1 10
9 Celta 8 1 5 2 8 6 2 8
10 Betis 6 2 2 2 7 6 1 8
11 Villarreal 8 2 2 4 13 13 0 8
12 Espanol 8 2 2 4 11 11 0 8
13 Vallecano 7 2 2 3 11 16 -5 8
14 Getafe 8 2 2 4 4 10 -6 8
15 Santander 8 2 2 4 13 23 -10 8
16 Osasuna 8 2 2 4 8 18 -10 8
17 Levante 7 1 3 3 11 15 -4 6
18 Elche 8 1 3 4 11 17 -6 6
19 Valencia 8 1 2 5 6 15 -9 5
20 Malaga 8 0 4 4 4 13 -9 4

Recent Trends

Osasuna L D L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Espanol (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 5)

Santander D L L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Valencia (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 7)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Osasuna

xG (avg) 1.16
xGA (avg) 1.28
Clean Sheets 0

Santander

xG (avg) 0.97
xGA (avg) 2.97
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Osasuna are the likeliest winners at 49%, with a draw at 26% and a Santander win at 25%. The goals forecast leans over 2.5, at 58%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest point in Osasuna’s favour, while the defensive comparison also tilts their way. Santander have conceded four goals per away game on average, and their recent trips ended in a 0-5 loss at Celta and a 2-7 defeat at Barcelona. That vulnerability gives Osasuna a chance to make home territory count. Osasuna’s own defending has looked fragile: they lost 2-5 away to Betis in their latest match, after a 1-1 home draw with Vallecano. At home, they have averaged 1.2 expected goals created, so their 0.5 goals scored per game suggests they have not fully converted their chances. Santander’s latest result was a 2-2 draw with Valencia, evidence they can contribute going forward, but their away results remain a concern.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Osasuna
Goals in last 5 matches
Santander
Goals in last 5 matches
The lean is over 2.5 goals at 58%. Santander’s poor away defending is the strongest reason for that outlook, with their away expected goals against averaging 3.0. Osasuna’s modest home scoring record is a counterweight, but their chance creation suggests they could find opportunities.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Osasuna
Corners in last 5 matches
Santander
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected total is 9.8 corners. Recent matches offer a similar guide: Osasuna’s game at Betis had 12 corners, while Santander’s draw with Valencia had 11.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Osasuna
Shots in last 5 matches
Santander
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected total is 25 shots. Osasuna’s latest match produced 31 in total, and Santander’s most recent game had 30, though those figures do not guarantee another similarly open contest.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Osasuna wins by X goals. Negative = Santander wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Osasuna vs Santander with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Osasuna vs Santander
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about half a goal in Osasuna’s favour. Their home advantage and Santander’s away defensive record support a narrow home lean, rather than a clear-cut result.

Final Prediction

Santander’s ability to turn Osasuna’s defensive weakness into goals is the clearest threat to the forecast. Osasuna have conceded 18 times in eight league games, so their home advantage may count for little if they again struggle to contain opponents.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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