La Liga 2026-2027: Osasuna vs Vallecano Prediction - 19 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Osasuna

Home Team
59%
VS

Vallecano

Away Team
19%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 64%
Under 2.5: 36%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 26.3
Expected Spread: +0.7

Why the Model Leans Osasuna

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Osasuna
Attack +5.4 Osasuna
Defense +4.0 Osasuna
Results & dominance +2.5 Osasuna
Chance creation (xG data) +1.3 Osasuna

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 76% for Osasuna. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Vallecano defense +8.5 Over
Vallecano attack & chance creation +3.3 Over
Osasuna attack & chance creation +2.8 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Form & results +1.9 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 64% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 6 6 0 0 28 6 22 18
2 Real Madrid 6 5 0 1 17 6 11 15
3 Betis 6 5 0 1 8 6 2 15
4 Ath Madrid 6 4 1 1 14 6 8 13
5 Sevilla 6 4 1 1 9 6 3 13
6 Alaves 6 3 1 2 11 6 5 10
7 La Coruna 6 2 3 1 9 7 2 9
8 Espanol 6 2 1 3 9 7 2 7
9 Betis 5 2 1 2 7 6 1 7
10 Santander 6 2 1 3 11 16 -5 7
11 Vallecano 6 2 1 3 10 15 -5 7
12 Sociedad 6 2 1 3 6 11 -5 7
13 Osasuna 6 2 1 3 5 12 -7 7
14 Villarreal 6 1 2 3 10 11 -1 5
15 Levante 5 1 2 2 7 9 -2 5
16 Getafe 6 1 2 3 3 7 -4 5
17 Celta 6 0 4 2 3 6 -3 4
18 Valencia 6 1 1 4 2 10 -8 4
19 Malaga 6 0 3 3 3 11 -8 3
20 Elche 6 0 2 4 8 16 -8 2

Recent Trends

Osasuna L L L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Espanol (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 1)

Vallecano W L W L D

  • Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Santander (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Osasuna

xG (avg) 1.23
xGA (avg) 1.26
Clean Sheets 1

Vallecano

xG (avg) 1.39
xGA (avg) 2.70
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Osasuna are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 59.0% chance of victory against Vallecano's 19.0% and a 22.0% probability of a draw. The model also points to an open contest, with an over 2.5 prediction at 64.0%. Both sides sit in the mid-lower pack of La Liga, Vallecano 11th and Osasuna 13th, each on 7 points from 6 games.

Match Analysis

The model's edge for Osasuna comes mainly from home advantage, adding 12.9 percentage points to their win probability, and is reinforced by small advantages in attack, defense and recent results. Despite three straight defeats, Osasuna have been competitive in chance creation, with an average xG of 1.23 for and 1.26 against over the last five games, which suggests they are underperforming their underlying numbers. Their recent run is poor on the scoreboard though: a 0:4 loss at Atlético Madrid, 0:2 at home to Espanyol and 2:5 away to Alavés, with only 5 goals scored and 12 conceded across the league season and a goal difference of −7. Vallecano arrive in slightly better recent form in terms of results, with two wins from their last three: 2:1 at home to Espanyol and 3:2 at home to Santander, offset by a 1:4 defeat at Real Madrid. They sit just ahead of Osasuna on goal difference, with 10 scored and 15 conceded and a goal difference of −5. Their advanced metrics underline a high risk approach: Vallecano average 1.33 goals scored but a huge 3.67 conceded in the last five, with xG of 1.39 for and 2.70 against and no clean sheets. The model still leans Osasuna's way through slightly better defensive numbers and chance control, plus the home factor.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Osasuna
Goals in last 5 matches
Vallecano
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is backed at 64.0%, driven primarily by Vallecano's fragile defense, which pushes the model 8.5 percentage points toward Over. Vallecano's attack and chance creation also add to the Over, while Osasuna's more modest attacking contribution pulls slightly toward under 2.5 but not enough to offset the pattern. All of Osasuna's last three league games went over 2.5 goals in total (4, 2, 7), with two of the three hitting at least four goals, and all three of Vallecano's recent matches were also over 2.5 (3, 5, 5). With Osasuna averaging 0.33 scored and 0.67 conceded, and Vallecano at 1.33 scored and 3.67 conceded, the underlying xG figures of 1.23 vs 1.39 for, and 1.26 vs 2.70 against, support a high scoring scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Osasuna
Corners in last 5 matches
Vallecano
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 10.1 total corners in this match. Osasuna's last three games brought corner counts of 0:8 at Atlético, 3:4 against Espanyol and 1:4 at Alavés, which shows they have struggled to force many attacking set pieces, especially away. Vallecano have been more aggressive in wide areas, with corner numbers of 3:5 vs Espanyol, 5:11 at Real Madrid and 9:6 vs Santander. With Vallecano's front foot style and Osasuna expected to attack more at home than in their recent away losses, a total near 10 predicted corners looks consistent.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Osasuna
Shots in last 5 matches
Vallecano
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 26.32 total attempts, suggesting a fairly busy attacking match. Osasuna have recently produced 3 shots at Atlético, 11 at home to Espanyol and 7 at Alavés, while allowing 27, 6 and 12 respectively, which points to a side often pushed back when facing stronger opposition. Vallecano have been involved in shot heavy contests, taking 16 and conceding 19 against Espanyol, 18 and 24 at Real Madrid and 16 and 9 versus Santander. These numbers line up with the shots prediction and the xG profiles, with both teams creating around or above 1.2 expected goals on average.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Osasuna wins by X goals. Negative = Vallecano wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Osasuna vs Vallecano with expected spread of +0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Osasuna vs Vallecano
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of +0.69 in favour of Osasuna, meaning the home side are projected to win by roughly one goal on average. Osasuna's recent results are heavy defeats in isolation, but much of that damage came in two lopsided games at Atlético and Alavés, and the model still rates their defensive structure slightly better than Vallecano's. Vallecano's last three have been decided by one or two goals either way and their recent concession of 4, 1 and 2 goals, together with the model's 59.0% home win probability, justify Osasuna being expected to edge this by a narrow margin.

Final Prediction

Osasuna's predicted edge rests above all on home advantage, backed by small but consistent model positives in attack, defense and overall control of games. Vallecano's leaky back line and their role in high scoring matches point toward an open contest where the home side should create enough to justify their favourite status. The key factor to watch will be how often Vallecano can get at Osasuna's defense, because their attacking energy is exactly what could turn this projection on its head if not contained.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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