La Liga 2025-2026: Sociedad vs Oviedo Prediction - 21 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Sociedad

Home Team
85%
VS

Oviedo

Away Team
6%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 24.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Real Madrid 24 19 3 2 53 19 34 60
2 Barcelona 24 19 1 4 64 25 39 58
3 Villarreal 24 15 3 6 45 26 19 48
4 Ath Madrid 24 13 6 5 38 21 17 45
5 Betis 24 11 8 5 39 29 10 41
6 Espanol 24 10 5 9 29 33 -4 35
7 Celta 24 8 10 6 32 27 5 34
8 Sociedad 24 8 7 9 34 35 -1 31
9 Betis 24 9 4 11 27 34 -7 31
10 Osasuna 24 8 6 10 28 28 0 30
11 Getafe 24 8 5 11 20 28 -8 29
12 Girona 24 7 8 9 24 38 -14 29
13 Sevilla 24 7 5 12 31 39 -8 26
14 Alaves 24 7 5 12 21 30 -9 26
15 Valencia 24 6 8 10 25 37 -12 26
16 Elche 24 5 10 9 31 35 -4 25
17 Vallecano 23 6 7 10 21 30 -9 25
18 Mallorca 24 6 6 12 29 39 -10 24
19 Levante 24 4 6 14 26 41 -15 18
20 Oviedo 23 3 7 13 13 36 -23 16

Recent Trends

Sociedad L W D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 1)

Oviedo L W L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sociedad

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.64
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.84
# Clean Sheets: 0

Oviedo

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.28
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.19
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Sociedad are clear favourites at home, with an 85.0% probability of taking all three points against bottom‑placed Oviedo, who have just a 6.0% chance of an upset. The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction with a 60.0% probability of at least three goals. In the table, Sociedad sit 8th on 31 points, while Oviedo are 20th with 16 points and fighting to avoid relegation.

Match Analysis

Sociedad come into this one with mixed but generally encouraging form: a 3-1 home win over Elche is sandwiched between a 4-1 defeat at Real Madrid and a 1-1 draw away to Athletic Bilbao. Across those three games they’ve shown they can both score and concede, with goal totals of 5, 4 and 2, respectively. Their recent averages back this up – 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game in the last five – although the xG numbers (1.642 for, 1.836 against) suggest they have been slightly overperforming in attack and a bit vulnerable at the back, with no clean sheets in that run. Oviedo, by contrast, are in deep trouble near the foot of the table. They’ve lost to Athletic Bilbao (2-1) and Barcelona (3-0), with only a narrow 1-0 home win over Girona breaking up the negative results. They average just 0.6 goals scored and 2.6 conceded across their last five matches, highlighting both their lack of firepower and a leaky defence. Their xG of 1.282 for and 2.188 against shows they do create some chances but allow even more, which is a dangerous combination away to a stronger side like Sociedad.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sociedad
Goals in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% is supported by the recent goal patterns of both teams. Two of Sociedad’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (5 and 4 total goals), with only the 1-1 draw at Athletic Bilbao staying under. For Oviedo, two of their last three also went over 2.5 (3-0 at Barcelona and 2-1 vs Athletic), while only the 1-0 win over Girona finished under 2.5. With Sociedad averaging 2.0 scored and Oviedo conceding 2.6 per game, plus both teams’ xG pointing to chances at both ends, a goal-friendly encounter looks likely.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sociedad
Corners in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.74, pointing to a medium-to-high corners prediction. Sociedad’s last three games featured 10, 6 and 9 total corners, while Oviedo’s produced 5, 8 and 11, indicating a fairly consistent flow of set-piece situations. Sociedad have shown they can push opponents back (for example 6-4 in corners at Real Madrid), while Oviedo often end up defending deep, which tends to generate predicted corners for the home side through sustained pressure.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sociedad
Shots in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match are 24.79 in total, consistent with a game where the hosts dominate territory. Sociedad’s last three outings saw combined shot counts of 24, 22 and 28, while Oviedo’s had 20, 17 and 27, so a shots prediction around 25 feels realistic. With Sociedad’s xG at 1.642 and Oviedo’s at 1.282 in recent games, both sides should create opportunities, but the higher volume and quality of chances are likely to fall to the home team.

Final Prediction

Sociedad’s stronger league position, better scoring record, and Oviedo’s fragile defence all tilt this clash heavily towards a home win. The key factor to watch will be how quickly Sociedad can impose their attacking rhythm; if they get on top early, Oviedo’s resistance may not last long.

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