La Liga 2025-2026: Vallecano vs Osasuna Prediction - 24 Jan 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Vallecano

Home Team
59%
VS

Osasuna

Away Team
20%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 20 16 1 3 54 22 32 49
2 Real Madrid 20 15 3 2 43 17 26 48
3 Villarreal 19 13 2 4 37 19 18 41
4 Ath Madrid 20 12 5 3 35 17 18 41
5 Espanol 20 10 4 6 23 22 1 34
6 Betis 20 8 8 4 33 25 8 32
7 Celta 20 8 8 4 28 20 8 32
8 Elche 20 5 9 6 27 26 1 24
9 Sociedad 20 6 6 8 26 28 -2 24
10 Betis 20 7 3 10 19 28 -9 24
11 Girona 20 6 6 8 20 34 -14 24
12 Osasuna 20 6 4 10 21 24 -3 22
13 Vallecano 20 5 7 8 16 25 -9 22
14 Sevilla 20 6 3 11 26 32 -6 21
15 Mallorca 20 5 6 9 24 30 -6 21
16 Getafe 20 6 3 11 15 26 -11 21
17 Valencia 20 4 8 8 19 31 -12 20
18 Alaves 20 5 4 11 16 25 -9 19
19 Levante 19 3 5 11 21 32 -11 14
20 Oviedo 20 2 7 11 11 31 -20 13

Recent Trends

Vallecano L W D L D

  • Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 0 - 0)

Osasuna W L D W L

  • Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Vallecano

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.73
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.85
# Clean Sheets: 1

Osasuna

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.83
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.23
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Vallecano and Osasuna is predicted to favor the home team, Vallecano, with a 59.0% probability of winning. The likelihood of the game ending in a draw is 21.0%, while Osasuna's chances of clinching a victory stand at 20.0%. The predicted outcome suggests a match with fewer than 2.5 goals, with a 47.0% probability of this result. Currently, Vallecano and Osasuna are closely positioned in the La Liga standings, holding the 13th and 12th spots, respectively, both with 22 points.

Match Analysis

In their recent performances, Vallecano has shown mixed results, with a record of one win, one draw, and one loss. Their most notable victory came at home against Mallorca with a 2-1 scoreline, while they also secured a draw against Getafe. Despite a 3-0 loss to Celta, Vallecano's defense has been relatively solid, averaging only 0.6 goals conceded over their last five matches. Their expected goals metric suggests they have been creating quality chances, averaging 1.726 expected goals per game. Osasuna, on the other hand, has had a challenging run with a win, a draw, and a loss in their last three outings. They managed a narrow victory over Oviedo at home, but struggled in a 1-0 defeat away at Girona. Osasuna's scoring has been sparse, with an average of just 0.4 goals per game in their last five matches. Their defense has been more vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per game, which could be a concern against Vallecano's attack.

Final Prediction

Vallecano appears to have a slight edge in this fixture due to their stronger home form and better defensive record. Their ability to create scoring opportunities, as indicated by their expected goals, could be a decisive factor. A key aspect to watch will be Vallecano's ability to convert their chances into goals against an Osasuna side that has been struggling to keep clean sheets. Fans can expect a tightly contested match with Vallecano having the potential to emerge victorious.

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