La Liga 2026-2027: Villarreal vs Levante Prediction - 20 Sep 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Villarreal

Home Team
70%
VS

Levante

Away Team
13%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 66%
Under 2.5: 34%
Goal: 63%
No Goal: 37%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 24.9
Expected Spread: +1.1

Why the Model Leans Villarreal

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Villarreal
Chance creation (xG data) +7.5 Villarreal
Attack +5.9 Villarreal
Defense +4.2 Villarreal
Results & dominance +4.0 Villarreal

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 85% for Villarreal. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Villarreal attack & chance creation +13.7 Over
Villarreal defense +2.7 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Form & results +1.8 Over
Levante defense +1.6 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 66% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 6 6 0 0 28 6 22 18
2 Real Madrid 6 5 0 1 17 6 11 15
3 Betis 6 5 0 1 8 6 2 15
4 Ath Madrid 6 4 1 1 14 6 8 13
5 Sevilla 6 4 1 1 9 6 3 13
6 Alaves 6 3 1 2 11 6 5 10
7 La Coruna 6 2 3 1 9 7 2 9
8 Espanol 6 2 1 3 9 7 2 7
9 Betis 5 2 1 2 7 6 1 7
10 Santander 6 2 1 3 11 16 -5 7
11 Vallecano 6 2 1 3 10 15 -5 7
12 Sociedad 6 2 1 3 6 11 -5 7
13 Osasuna 6 2 1 3 5 12 -7 7
14 Villarreal 6 1 2 3 10 11 -1 5
15 Levante 5 1 2 2 7 9 -2 5
16 Getafe 6 1 2 3 3 7 -4 5
17 Celta 6 0 4 2 3 6 -3 4
18 Valencia 6 1 1 4 2 10 -8 4
19 Malaga 6 0 3 3 3 11 -8 3
20 Elche 6 0 2 4 8 16 -8 2

Recent Trends

Villarreal W L L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Malaga (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs La Coruna (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Alaves (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 2)

Levante L D W D L

  • Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Malaga (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Betis (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Espanol (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Villarreal

xG (avg) 2.65
xGA (avg) 3.25
Clean Sheets 0

Levante

xG (avg) 0.89
xGA (avg) 1.54
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Villarreal are tipped to win this one, with a 70.0% probability of a home victory against a Levante side given just a 13.0% chance, and a 17.0% likelihood of a draw. The model also points to an over 2.5 prediction, with a 66.0% chance of at least three goals. Both teams are in the bottom half of La Liga, with Villarreal 14th on 5 points and Levante just behind in 15th, also on 5 points.

Match Analysis

The model’s clear edge toward Villarreal is driven mainly by home advantage and superior chance creation. Home advantage alone adds 12.9 percentage points to Villarreal, which matters for a side that has created plenty in recent games but not always turned it into points. Across the last three matches they have beaten Malaga 3‑1 away and lost narrow, high event games at home to Betis (1‑2) and La Coruna (2‑3). In all three they produced double‑digit shot counts and consistent corner pressure, underlining the 7.5 point swing from chance creation and a 5.9 point edge in attack. Levante arrive with a more mixed profile. They have shown they can trouble strong opposition in spells, losing 2‑4 at home to leaders Barcelona with 13 shots and then drawing 0‑0 at Malaga after an even contest. The standout result was the 5‑2 home win over Betis. However, the advanced metrics over the last five matches show an average of 0.0 goals scored and 0.886 xG per game, which is far less threatening than Villarreal’s 1.5 goals and 2.655 xG. Defensively, Levante concede 1.0 goal and 1.543 xG on average, which is better than Villarreal’s 2.5 goals and 3.255 xG conceded, but the model still gives Villarreal a 4.2 point edge in defense thanks to overall match control and territory.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Villarreal
Goals in last 5 matches
Levante
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 66.0% is driven mainly by Villarreal’s attack and chance creation, which push 13.7 percentage points toward Over. Two of Villarreal’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (3‑1 at Malaga and 2‑3 vs La Coruna), with only the 1‑2 loss to Betis just on the three goal mark. Levante’s last three outings were also goal heavy in two cases, with a 4‑2 defeat to Barcelona and a 5‑2 win over Betis, alongside a 0‑0 at Malaga. Villarreal’s averages of 1.5 scored and 2.5 conceded, backed by 2.655 xG for and 3.255 xG against, point strongly toward another open contest, while Levante’s underlying xG against of 1.543 and their recent big scorelines support the Over call more than any under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Villarreal
Corners in last 5 matches
Levante
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 10.01. Villarreal’s last three matches produced 8, 11 and 8 total corners, with the Yellow Submarine often on the front foot (8‑4 at Malaga, 7‑4 vs Betis and 7‑1 vs La Coruna). Levante’s recent games brought 8 corners against Barcelona, 10 at Malaga and 13 against Betis. Both sides tend to attack in numbers, which naturally creates predicted corners in the region of ten.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Villarreal
Shots in last 5 matches
Levante
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction stands at 24.93 expected shots in total. Villarreal’s last three have seen them take 16, 14 and 17 shots, while allowing 5, 26 and 8, which fits a high tempo style with plenty of efforts from both sides. Levante’s recent record is similar, with 13 and 19 shots at home and 11 away at Malaga, while conceding between 10 and 20 each time. That activity level aligns with their xG figures and supports the model’s expected shots call around the mid 20s.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Villarreal wins by X goals. Negative = Levante wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Villarreal vs Levante with expected spread of +1.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Villarreal vs Levante
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Villarreal −1.09, meaning the home side are expected to win by roughly a one goal margin. Villarreal’s last three have all been decided by a single goal, with a +2, −1 and −1 goal difference, while Levante have just had swings of −2, 0 and +3. The model’s expected spread matches the 70.0% home win probability and reflects Villarreal’s stronger attacking numbers and home advantage, even if their defense has been leaky.

Final Prediction

Villarreal’s edge comes chiefly from home advantage and superior chance creation, both in the raw stats and the model’s key factors. If Levante are to upset the odds, their defense will have to absorb sustained pressure from a Villarreal attack that regularly posts high xG and shot counts. The key factor to watch will be how often Villarreal can turn their territorial dominance into clear chances in the first hour.

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Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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