Ligue 1 2026-2027: Angers vs Marseille Prediction - 18 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Angers

Home Team
37%
VS

Marseille

Away Team
35%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 63%
Under 2.5: 37%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 10.7
Expected Shots: 28.4
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Angers

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Angers
Attack +4.0 Marseille
Chance creation (xG data) +3.2 Marseille
Defense +2.3 Marseille
Results & dominance +1.8 Marseille

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Angers. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Angers defense +4.6 Over
Marseille defense +3.5 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Form & results +0.6 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 63% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Monaco 6 4 2 0 10 5 5 14
2 Lille 6 4 1 1 9 4 5 13
3 Rennes 6 4 1 1 12 10 2 13
4 Lyon 6 3 2 1 11 4 7 11
5 Paris FC 6 3 2 1 8 4 4 11
6 Paris SG 6 3 2 1 11 8 3 11
7 Brest 6 2 2 2 12 9 3 8
8 Lorient 6 2 2 2 6 6 0 8
9 Nice 6 2 2 2 5 7 -2 8
10 Lens 6 2 1 3 11 10 1 7
11 Strasbourg 6 2 1 3 11 12 -1 7
12 Angers 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
13 Marseille 6 2 0 4 9 8 1 6
14 Le Mans 6 1 3 2 10 12 -2 6
15 Toulouse 6 1 3 2 9 11 -2 6
16 Auxerre 6 2 0 4 8 16 -8 6
17 Troyes 6 1 1 4 4 13 -9 4
18 Le Havre 6 0 2 4 4 8 -4 2

Recent Trends

Angers L W D L W

  • Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Troyes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 3 - 1)

Marseille W L L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Troyes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Angers

xG (avg) 2.04
xGA (avg) 1.58
Clean Sheets 2

Marseille

xG (avg) 1.28
xGA (avg) 1.73
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Angers are the narrowest pick to win at 37%, ahead of Marseille at 35%, with a draw at 28%. The lean is over 2.5 goals, with a 63% probability.

Match Analysis

Home advantage gives Angers a reason to expect a close contest, but Marseille have the stronger attacking and defensive figures in the comparison. Angers have scored seven and conceded 10 in six league matches, while Marseille have scored nine and conceded eight. The difference is small, and neither side arrives with consistent results. Angers’ latest outing was a 1-5 defeat away to Brest, a heavy setback after their 2-0 home win over Troyes. Marseille most recently won 2-0 away to Troyes, following losses to Paris SG and Rennes. Angers’ home scoring average is 1.0 goal, below their 2.0 expected goals created at home, so better finishing could matter. Marseille have averaged 0.7 goals away from home, against 1.3 expected goals created there.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Angers
Goals in last 5 matches
Marseille
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 63%. Both defences point in that direction: Angers have conceded 10 goals in six league games, and Marseille have allowed eight, while the league scoring environment also supports goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Angers
Corners in last 5 matches
Marseille
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.7 corners. Recent matches have produced varied totals, including nine in Angers-Brest and 13 in Angers-Troyes, so a figure around 10 is plausible.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Angers
Shots in last 5 matches
Marseille
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 28 shots. Angers’ latest match produced 28 shots between the teams, while Marseille’s recent match with Paris SG had 43, evidence of the potential for a busy game.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Angers wins by X goals. Negative = Marseille wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Angers vs Marseille with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Angers vs Marseille
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is almost level, with Marseille ahead by about 0.1 goal. That slight away lean sits alongside Angers being the likeliest winner, though only narrowly.

Final Prediction

Angers’ home chance creation could turn the forecast if it starts producing goals. Their home expected-goals figure is considerably higher than their actual scoring average, while Marseille’s recent away scoring has also lagged behind its chances.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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