Ligue 1 2025-2026: Auxerre vs Metz Prediction
Auxerre
Home Team
53%
VS
Metz
Away Team
24%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5:
49%
Under 2.5:
51%
Goal:
50%
No Goal:
50%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lens | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 31 |
| 2 | Paris SG | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 30 |
| 3 | Marseille | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 29 |
| 4 | Lille | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 26 |
| 5 | Rennes | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 24 |
| 6 | Lyon | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 24 |
| 7 | Monaco | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 23 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 22 |
| 9 | Toulouse | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 17 |
| 10 | Nice | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 17 |
| 11 | Brest | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 16 |
| 12 | Angers | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 16 |
| 13 | Paris FC | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 15 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 14 |
| 15 | Lorient | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 14 |
| 16 | Nantes | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 11 |
| 17 | Metz | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 31 | -17 | 11 |
| 18 | Auxerre | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
Recent Trends
Auxerre
- Last Match: vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 3)
Metz
- Last Match: vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 3)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Lens (Goals: 2 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Auxerre
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.06
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.10
# Clean Sheets:
1
Metz
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.09
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.91
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Auxerre and Metz is tipped in favor of the home team, Auxerre, with a 53.0% probability of victory. Meanwhile, the likelihood of Metz pulling off a win stands at 24.0%, and the draw is pegged at 23.0%. Despite both teams struggling at the bottom of the Ligue 1 standings, Auxerre (18th) is expected to edge out Metz (17th) in what looks to be a low-scoring affair, as the probability of under 2.5 goals is 49.0%, with a predicted result of no goals.
Match Analysis
Auxerre's recent form has been less than stellar, with two draws and a loss in their last three outings. Their defensive resilience was on display with a goalless draw against Lyon, but an inability to find the back of the net remains a concern, having scored only once in these games. Their average of 0.4 goals per match highlights their offensive struggles, although defensively, they concede less than a goal per game on average, suggesting a relatively solid backline.
Metz, on the other hand, has had a mixed bag of results, recently achieving a victory over Nice but suffering consecutive defeats against Rennes and Brest. Their attacking output of 1.4 goals per game over the last five matches suggests they are capable of scoring, but a leaky defense conceding an average of 3.6 goals poses significant problems. Despite having two clean sheets in their recent fixtures, their defensive frailties could be their undoing against Auxerre.
Final Prediction
Auxerre's predicted edge stems from their defensive solidity and the home advantage. While both teams are struggling for form, Auxerre's ability to maintain a tight defense could be decisive against a Metz side prone to conceding goals. A key factor to watch will be whether Auxerre can capitalize on Metz's defensive vulnerabilities and secure a much-needed win.