Ligue 1 2026-2027: Brest vs Angers Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Brest

Home Team
46%
VS

Angers

Away Team
27%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 10.4
Expected Shots: 29.1
Expected Spread: +0.3

Why the Model Leans Brest

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Brest
Attack +5.0 Angers
Defense +4.0 Brest
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.3 Angers
Chance creation (xG data) +1.0 Brest

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 63% for Brest. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Brest attack & chance creation +6.7 Over
Brest defense +2.9 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Angers defense +1.7 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 8 3 5 13
2 Lyon 5 3 2 0 10 2 8 11
3 Paris FC 5 3 2 0 8 3 5 11
4 Lille 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 8 9 -1 10
6 Paris SG 5 2 2 1 8 7 1 8
7 Angers 5 2 1 2 6 5 1 7
8 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 10 10 0 7
9 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 9 9 0 6
10 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 7 12 -5 6
11 Brest 5 1 2 2 7 8 -1 5
12 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5 6 -1 5
13 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 7 9 -2 5
14 Nice 5 1 2 2 3 6 -3 5
15 Lens 5 1 1 3 9 9 0 4
16 Troyes 5 1 1 3 4 11 -7 4
17 Marseille 5 1 0 4 7 8 -1 3
18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 4 7 -3 2

Recent Trends

Brest L L W D D

  • Last Match: L vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Le Mans (Goals: 2 - 2)

Angers W D L W L

  • Last Match: W vs Troyes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brest

xG (avg) 2.44
xGA (avg) 1.32
Clean Sheets 0

Angers

xG (avg) 1.13
xGA (avg) 1.40
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Brest are the most likely winners at 46%, with Angers at 27% and the draw also at 27%. The goals forecast leans over 2.5, with a 59% probability.

Match Analysis

Home advantage and Brest’s better defensive record provide the main support for the hosts. Angers have the stronger attack, however, and have scored six goals in five league games, compared with Brest’s seven. Brest have conceded eight, while Angers have let in five. Brest’s latest match was a 1-2 defeat away to Auxerre, following a 0-1 home loss to Paris SG, and they have kept no clean sheets in five. Angers beat Troyes 2-0 in their latest outing after a 0-0 draw away to Le Havre. Brest’s home chance creation has outpaced their scoring: they have averaged 2.4 expected goals at home but 1.0 actual goal.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Brest
Goals in last 5 matches
Angers
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 59%. Brest’s attack and chance creation are the strongest influence in that direction, while Angers’ defence also points towards the possibility of goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Brest
Corners in last 5 matches
Angers
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 10.4 corners in total. Recent matches have produced varied corner counts, but Brest’s home meeting with Paris SG had only five, while Angers’ latest match with Troyes had 13.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Brest
Shots in last 5 matches
Angers
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is about 29 shots. Recent totals include 24 in Brest’s match with Auxerre and 31 in Angers’ win over Troyes, in keeping with a potentially busy contest.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Brest wins by X goals. Negative = Angers wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Brest vs Angers with expected spread of +0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Brest vs Angers
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Brest are favoured by about 0.4 of a goal. That is a modest home-side advantage, consistent with the narrow gap between the teams’ win probabilities.

Final Prediction

Angers’ stronger attack could turn the contest if Brest’s recent defensive problems continue. Brest’s home chance creation offers a route to a win, but converting those opportunities has been the challenge.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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