Ligue 1 2025-2026: Le Havre vs Lille Prediction

Le Havre

Home Team
5%
VS

Lille

Away Team
89%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 13 9 3 1 27 11 16 30
2 Marseille 13 9 1 3 33 12 21 28
3 Lens 13 9 1 3 22 11 11 28
4 Lille 13 7 2 4 27 17 10 23
5 Strasbourg 13 7 1 5 24 17 7 22
6 Rennes 13 5 6 2 23 18 5 21
7 Lyon 13 6 3 4 18 15 3 21
8 Monaco 13 6 2 5 25 25 0 20
9 Nice 13 5 2 6 18 23 -5 17
10 Toulouse 13 4 4 5 18 17 1 16
11 Angers 13 4 4 5 11 15 -4 16
12 Paris FC 13 4 2 7 20 25 -5 14
13 Le Havre 13 3 5 5 13 20 -7 14
14 Brest 13 3 4 6 17 23 -6 13
15 Nantes 13 2 5 6 12 19 -7 11
16 Lorient 13 2 5 6 15 27 -12 11
17 Metz 13 3 2 8 14 30 -16 11
18 Auxerre 13 2 2 9 7 19 -12 8

Recent Trends

Le Havre ❌ ⚪ ⚪ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Brest (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 0)

Lille ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Paris FC (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Metz (Goals: 6 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Le Havre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.50
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.78
# Clean Sheets: 3

Lille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.90
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.65
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Le Havre and Lille is heavily tipped in favor of the visitors, with an 89.0% probability of Lille securing a victory. The chances of a home win are notably slimmer at 5.0%, while the draw stands at 6.0%. With Lille positioned 4th in Ligue 1 and Le Havre languishing at 13th, the odds seem stacked against the home side. Additionally, there is a 57.0% likelihood that the match will feature over 2.5 goals, aligning with Lille's attacking potential.

Match Analysis

Le Havre's recent form has been a mixed bag, with a notable 0-3 defeat against league leaders Paris SG and two draws against Nantes and Toulouse. Despite these results, Le Havre has managed three clean sheets in their last five matches, reflecting a decent defensive setup. Their average expected goals (xG) of 1.502 suggests they have the potential to create goal-scoring opportunities but may struggle to convert them. On the other hand, Lille comes into this match with a more positive recent record, including two victories in their last three games, notably a 4-2 win over Paris FC and a 1-0 triumph against Angers. Their attacking prowess is evident, averaging 1.8 goals per game over the last five matches, backed by an expected goals tally of 1.9. However, defensively, they are not impenetrable, as they have conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game, which might offer Le Havre a glimmer of hope.

Final Prediction

Lille's superior league position and recent form give them a clear edge going into this match. Their ability to score goals, coupled with Le Havre's inconsistent performances, makes them strong favorites. A key factor to watch will be Lille's attacking execution, as their goal-scoring capabilities could define the outcome of this encounter. With both teams having vulnerabilities in defense, fans should anticipate an engaging match with potentially plenty of action and goals.