Ligue 1 2025-2026: Le Havre vs Paris FC Prediction

Le Havre

Home Team
43%
VS

Paris FC

Away Team
31%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 14 10 1 3 24 12 12 31
2 Paris SG 14 9 3 2 27 12 15 30
3 Marseille 14 9 2 3 35 14 21 29
4 Lille 14 8 2 4 28 17 11 26
5 Rennes 14 6 6 2 24 18 6 24
6 Lyon 14 7 3 4 21 15 6 24
7 Monaco 14 7 2 5 26 25 1 23
8 Strasbourg 14 7 1 6 25 19 6 22
9 Toulouse 14 4 5 5 20 19 1 17
10 Nice 14 5 2 7 19 26 -7 17
11 Brest 14 4 4 6 19 24 -5 16
12 Angers 14 4 4 6 12 17 -5 16
13 Paris FC 14 4 3 7 21 26 -5 15
14 Le Havre 14 3 5 6 13 21 -8 14
15 Lorient 14 3 5 6 18 28 -10 14
16 Nantes 14 2 5 7 12 22 -10 11
17 Metz 14 3 2 9 14 31 -17 11
18 Auxerre 14 2 3 9 8 20 -12 9

Recent Trends

Le Havre ❌ ❌ ⚪ ⚪ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Brest (Goals: 1 - 0)

Paris FC ⚪ ❌ ❌ ✅ ⚪

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lille (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Lyon (Goals: 3 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Le Havre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.32
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.91
# Clean Sheets: 2

Paris FC

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.32
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.18
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Le Havre and Paris FC is poised to be an intriguing encounter, with Le Havre having a slight edge with a 43.0% probability of securing a home victory. Meanwhile, Paris FC's chances of winning stand at 31.0%, and the likelihood of a draw is 26.0%. The match is expected to fall under 2.5 goals, reflecting a low-scoring affair. Currently, Le Havre is positioned 14th in the league standings, just a notch below Paris FC, who are in 13th place.

Match Analysis

Both teams have struggled to find form lately, which must be addressed to change their trajectory. Le Havre’s recent three matches include a home loss to Lille (0-1), a heavy away defeat to Paris SG (0-3), and a home draw against Nantes (1-1). Their defensive resilience is reflected in their ability to keep two clean sheets in their last five games, but their attack has been somewhat blunt, averaging just 1.0 goal per game. Paris FC has also faced challenges, recording a home draw with Auxerre (1-1) and losses to Lille (2-4) and Rennes (0-1). They have been more prolific in front of goal compared to Le Havre, scoring an average of 1.4 goals in their last five matches. However, defensive frailties are evident, with an average of 1.6 goals conceded and a single clean sheet in the same period. Advanced metrics reveal Le Havre’s expected goals (xG) are slightly higher than their actual scoring output, indicating potential for improvement. Conversely, Paris FC's xG suggests they should maintain their scoring rate, but their expected goals conceded indicate vulnerabilities at the back.

Final Prediction

Le Havre’s slight home advantage, combined with their ability to maintain defensive solidity, gives them an edge in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be Paris FC's ability to break down Le Havre’s defensive setup, given their recent struggles against resilient defenses. The game promises to be a tight contest, where small margins could determine the outcome.