Ligue 1 2024-2025: Le Havre vs Toulouse Prediction - 23 Feb 2025
Result | Under-Over 2.5
Le Havre
Home Team
19%
VS
Toulouse
Away Team
65%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5:
49%
Under 2.5:
51%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 22 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 59 | 20 | 39 | 56 |
| 2 | Marseille | 22 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 50 | 26 | 24 | 46 |
| 3 | Nice | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 44 | 27 | 17 | 40 |
| 4 | Monaco | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 44 | 29 | 15 | 40 |
| 5 | Lille | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 36 | 22 | 14 | 38 |
| 6 | Lyon | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 40 | 27 | 13 | 36 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 37 | 32 | 5 | 33 |
| 8 | Lens | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 22 | 3 | 33 |
| 9 | Brest | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 32 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 27 |
| 11 | Angers | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 26 |
| 12 | Auxerre | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 25 |
| 13 | Rennes | 22 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 23 |
| 14 | Reims | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 22 |
| 15 | Nantes | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 21 |
| 16 | St Etienne | 22 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 20 | 50 | -30 | 18 |
| 17 | Le Havre | 22 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 43 | -25 | 17 |
| 18 | Montpellier | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 21 | 52 | -31 | 15 |
Recent Trends
Le Havre
- Last Match: vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Lille (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Reims (Goals: 1 - 1)
Toulouse
- Last Match: vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Auxerre (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Montpellier (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Le Havre
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.00
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.04
# Clean Sheets:
0
Toulouse
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.36
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.42
# Clean Sheets:
1
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Le Havre and Toulouse is predicted to favor the visitors, Toulouse, with a 65.00% probability of winning. Le Havre, positioned 17th in Ligue 1, will be looking for an upset against the 10th-placed Toulouse. The game is also expected to be tight, with a 49.00% probability that it will feature under 2.5 goals.
Match Analysis
Le Havre comes into this match with mixed results in their last three fixtures. After a 3-1 home defeat to Nice, they bounced back with a crucial 2-1 away victory against Lille. Their most recent outing saw them secure a 1-1 draw against Angers away from home. Despite these efforts, Le Havre has been struggling to keep clean sheets and has conceded an average of 2.0 goals per game in their last five matches.
On the other hand, Toulouse has also had a challenging set of recent fixtures. They narrowly lost to league leaders Paris SG, conceding just one goal at home. This was followed by consecutive draws against Auxerre and Nice, both ending in a stalemate. Toulouse has shown slightly better defensive metrics, conceding an average of 1.4 goals per game over their last five matches while managing a clean sheet in that span. They have also been more efficient in attack, with an average of 1.358 expected goals scored per match.
Download Probability Data
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Final Prediction
Toulouse's higher probability of victory can be attributed to their superior standing in the league and their marginally stronger defensive record. A key factor to watch will be Toulouse's ability to capitalize on their chances, as they have shown a higher expected goals average compared to Le Havre. This encounter could hinge on which side is more clinical in front of goal.
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