Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lille vs Le Havre Prediction - 3 May 2026
Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread
Lille
Home Team
70%
VS
Le Havre
Away Team
14%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5:
56%
Under 2.5:
44%
Goal:
51%
No Goal:
49%
Expected Corners:
9.4
Expected Shots:
24.9
Expected Spread:
+1.1
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Set it upCurrent Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 30 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 68 | 25 | 43 | 69 |
| 2 | Lens | 30 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 60 | 32 | 28 | 63 |
| 3 | Lyon | 31 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 48 | 32 | 16 | 57 |
| 4 | Lille | 31 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 57 |
| 5 | Rennes | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 54 | 42 | 12 | 56 |
| 6 | Marseille | 31 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 59 | 41 | 18 | 53 |
| 7 | Monaco | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 54 | 47 | 7 | 51 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 46 |
| 9 | Lorient | 31 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 41 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 38 |
| 11 | Brest | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 41 | 47 | -6 | 38 |
| 12 | Paris FC | 31 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 38 |
| 13 | Angers | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 43 | -17 | 34 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 31 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 31 |
| 15 | Nice | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 31 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 25 |
| 17 | Nantes | 31 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 26 | 51 | -25 | 20 |
| 18 | Metz | 31 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 31 | 70 | -39 | 16 |
Recent Trends
Lille
- Last Match: vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Toulouse (Goals: 4 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Lens (Goals: 3 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 1)
Le Havre
- Last Match: vs Metz (Goals: 4 - 4)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 3)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Lille
xG (avg)
1.47
xGA (avg)
0.50
Clean Sheets
4
Le Havre
xG (avg)
1.45
xGA (avg)
1.70
Clean Sheets
0
Key Prediction Insights
Lille are clear favourites at home, with a 70.0% chance of victory against a Le Havre side given just a 14.0% shot, and a 16.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a Lille win and an over 2.5 goals prediction (56.0% chance) in a clash between a top‑four contender and a team still glancing over its shoulder. Lille come into this round 4th in Ligue 1 on 57 points, while Le Havre sit 14th on 31 points.
Match Analysis
Lille’s recent form has been steady and controlled rather than explosive: a 1-0 win at Paris FC, a 0-0 home draw with Nice and a commanding 4-0 victory away to Toulouse. That run – seven points from nine and just one goal conceded – underlines a side that knows how to manage games, keep clean sheets and strike decisively when chances come. Their advanced numbers back that up: 1.47 expected goals for and only 0.504 expected goals against on average over the last five matches, with four clean sheets in that spell, paint the picture of a well-balanced, defensively sound contender.
Le Havre, by contrast, have been involved in far more chaotic contests. All of their last three have ended level – 4-4 at home to Metz, and 1-1 draws away to Angers and Nice – but the manner of those results is very different from Lille’s tightly controlled outings. Defensively they look vulnerable: they’ve conceded 1.8 goals per game in their last five, with an average of 1.702 expected goals against and no clean sheets. The positive for them is that they are creating: 0.8 goals scored per match undersells their 1.454 expected goals for, suggesting they do find shooting positions but lack the finishing or composure Lille have shown.
Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction
Recent Goals Trends
Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5
Lille
Le Havre
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction with a 56.0% probability, and the recent scorelines support that leaning. Only one of Lille’s last three games has gone over 2.5 goals (the 4-0 at Toulouse), while two stayed under 2.5, but their attacking xG of 1.47 combined with Le Havre’s defensive fragility hints at more goals here. On the other side, two of Le Havre’s last three matches finished under 2.5 goals, but the eight-goal thriller against Metz and their 1.8 goals conceded per game suggest that once the game opens up, it can escalate quickly.
Corners Prediction
Recent Corners Trends
Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.
Lille
Le Havre
Corners Probability Distribution
Distribution
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
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The corners prediction points to a moderate total, with 9.37 expected total corners in this match. Lille’s last three show mixed numbers – 3, 5 and 2 corners won, while allowing 7, 3 and 4 – reflecting a side that doesn’t necessarily rack up huge corner counts despite attacking quality. Le Havre have posted 6, 3 and 2 corners for, conceding 4, 4 and 5; their games tend to be open but not relentlessly end-to-end. With Lille likely to control territory and Le Havre looking to break, the predicted corners total around nine fits two teams whose width and crossing are present but not extreme.
Shots Prediction
Recent Shots Trends
Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.
Lille
Le Havre
Shots Probability Distribution
Distribution
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
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The shots prediction gives an expected shots total of 24.92, indicating a reasonably busy afternoon for both goalkeepers. Lille’s last three games saw them take 10, 9 and 15 shots, while conceding 7, 5 and 9, a profile consistent with a top‑four side that regularly outshoots opponents without turning matches into shooting galleries. Le Havre have attempted 14, 16 and 11 shots in their last three, conceding 12, 11 and 15; that volume matches their xG numbers, showing they do fire often even if the shot quality varies. Taken together, these patterns justify an expected shots figure in the mid‑20s, with Lille’s superior efficiency likely to tell.
Goal Spread Prediction
Goal Spread Probability Distribution
Positive = Lille wins by X goals. Negative = Le Havre wins by X goals.
Distribution
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
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The goal spread prediction favours Lille by 1.15 goals, meaning the expected spread suggests a solid home win rather than a tight scrap. Recent scorelines back that up: Lille’s last three bring a combined goal difference of +5 (5 scored, 0 conceded), while Le Havre sit at 0 over their last three (6 scored, 6 conceded) but with far greater defensive instability. Aligning the 70.0% home‑win probability with Lille’s defensive record (0.4 goals conceded per game over the last five) and Le Havre’s leakiness (1.8 conceded) makes a one‑to‑two goal margin in Lille’s favour a logical expectation.
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Final Prediction
Lille’s blend of control, defensive solidity and superior underlying numbers gives them a clear edge over a Le Havre side that is entertaining but unconvincing at the back. If Lille impose their structure early and keep Le Havre at arm’s length, their extra quality in both penalty areas should decide it. The key factor to watch will be whether Le Havre can turn their decent xG and shot volume into ruthless finishing – without tightening up defensively, they risk being picked off by a clinical home side.
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