Ligue 1 2026-2027: Lille vs Le Havre Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Lille

Home Team
60%
VS

Le Havre

Away Team
18%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 63%
Under 2.5: 37%
Goal: 63%
No Goal: 37%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 29.3
Expected Spread: +0.8

Why the Model Leans Lille

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Lille
Defense +5.0 Lille
Attack +4.2 Lille
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.8 Lille
Results & dominance +2.4 Lille

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 77% for Lille. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Lille attack & chance creation +5.0 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Le Havre attack & chance creation +2.3 Over
Le Havre defense +2.3 Over
Lille defense +1.2 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 63% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 8 3 5 13
2 Lyon 5 3 2 0 10 2 8 11
3 Paris FC 5 3 2 0 8 3 5 11
4 Lille 5 3 1 1 8 4 4 10
5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 8 9 -1 10
6 Paris SG 5 2 2 1 8 7 1 8
7 Angers 5 2 1 2 6 5 1 7
8 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 10 10 0 7
9 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 9 9 0 6
10 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 7 12 -5 6
11 Brest 5 1 2 2 7 8 -1 5
12 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5 6 -1 5
13 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 7 9 -2 5
14 Nice 5 1 2 2 3 6 -3 5
15 Lens 5 1 1 3 9 9 0 4
16 Troyes 5 1 1 3 4 11 -7 4
17 Marseille 5 1 0 4 7 8 -1 3
18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 4 7 -3 2

Recent Trends

Lille L W W D W

  • Last Match: L vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Troyes (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Paris SG (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 0)

Le Havre L D L D L

  • Last Match: L vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lille

xG (avg) 1.60
xGA (avg) 1.06
Clean Sheets 3

Le Havre

xG (avg) 1.63
xGA (avg) 2.57
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Lille are favoured to win, with a 60% chance, against 18% for Le Havre and 22% for a draw. The goals outlook leans over 2.5, at 63%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is a major part of Lille’s case, backed by stronger defending and attacking output. Lille have averaged 2.0 goals scored at home, while Le Havre have allowed away chances worth 2.6 expected goals per match. Lille have also kept three clean sheets in their last five matches, compared with one for Le Havre. Lille’s latest result was a 1-2 defeat away to Nice, following wins over Troyes 2-0 and Toulouse 1-0. Le Havre drew 0-0 with Angers between defeats to Brest, 1-2, and Toulouse, 2-3 in their most recent match. Their latest away performance showed they can score, but their defensive record gives Lille room to exploit.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lille
Goals in last 5 matches
Le Havre
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 63%. Lille’s chance creation is the strongest push towards goals, with Le Havre’s away defending also a concern given the chances it has allowed.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lille
Corners in last 5 matches
Le Havre
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.2 corners. Le Havre’s three most recent matches produced 13, 10 and 10 corners, while Lille’s produced between seven and 10.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lille
Shots in last 5 matches
Le Havre
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 29 shots. Both teams have regularly generated double-digit attempts in their recent matches, with Lille recording 21 in their latest game and Le Havre 18.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Lille wins by X goals. Negative = Le Havre wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Lille vs Le Havre with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Lille vs Le Havre
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected margin is about 0.8 goals in Lille’s favour. That fits the home-win lean, while leaving room for a draw or a narrower result.

Final Prediction

Le Havre’s two goals away to Toulouse show the visitors can make chances count. If they carry that threat into this match, they could test Lille’s home defence and make the forecast less comfortable.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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