Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lille vs Marseille Prediction

Lille

Home Team
27%
VS

Marseille

Away Team
51%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 14 10 1 3 24 12 12 31
2 Paris SG 14 9 3 2 27 12 15 30
3 Marseille 14 9 2 3 35 14 21 29
4 Lille 14 8 2 4 28 17 11 26
5 Rennes 14 6 6 2 24 18 6 24
6 Lyon 14 7 3 4 21 15 6 24
7 Monaco 14 7 2 5 26 25 1 23
8 Strasbourg 14 7 1 6 25 19 6 22
9 Toulouse 14 4 5 5 20 19 1 17
10 Nice 14 5 2 7 19 26 -7 17
11 Brest 14 4 4 6 19 24 -5 16
12 Angers 14 4 4 6 12 17 -5 16
13 Paris FC 14 4 3 7 21 26 -5 15
14 Le Havre 14 3 5 6 13 21 -8 14
15 Lorient 14 3 5 6 18 28 -10 14
16 Nantes 14 2 5 7 12 22 -10 11
17 Metz 14 3 2 9 14 31 -17 11
18 Auxerre 14 2 3 9 8 20 -12 9

Recent Trends

Lille ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Paris FC (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 2)

Marseille ⚪ ✅ ✅ ✅ ⚪

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Nice (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Brest (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.50
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.03
# Clean Sheets: 2

Marseille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.85
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.12
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Lille and Marseille is slated to be an exciting encounter with Marseille predicted to come out on top, holding a 51.0% probability of winning. Lille, currently fourth in Ligue 1, will host third-placed Marseille, who have been in fine form recently. The game is expected to feature more than 2.5 goals with a 55.0% probability, promising an engaging and high-scoring affair for fans.

Match Analysis

Lille's recent form has been mixed, with two wins and a loss in their last three outings. They secured victories against Le Havre and Paris FC but stumbled against Strasbourg. Lille's offensive prowess has been evident, averaging 2.4 goals per game over their last five matches, although their defense has been slightly leaky, conceding an average of 1.0 goals per match. Their ability to maintain clean sheets in two of their last five games shows they can be resilient at the back when needed. Marseille, on the other hand, has shown strong consistency with two wins and a draw in their last three matches. They exhibited their attacking strength with a commanding 5-1 victory over Nice and a solid 3-0 win against Brest. Their recent goal-scoring average also stands at 2.4 per game, while their defense has been robust, conceding just 0.8 goals on average. With two clean sheets in their last five games, Marseille's defensive discipline could play a crucial role in their favor.

Final Prediction

Marseille's superior form and solid defensive performances give them a distinct edge in this matchup. Their ability to score freely while keeping a tight defense will be crucial against Lille's attacking threat. Fans should keep an eye on Marseille's attacking dynamism, which could prove decisive in determining the outcome of this exciting Ligue 1 contest.