Ligue 1 2026-2027: Lorient vs Brest Prediction - 2 Nov 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Lorient

Home Team
33%
VS

Brest

Away Team
40%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 25.2
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Brest

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Lorient
Chance creation (xG data) +12.3 Brest
Attack +6.2 Brest
Results & dominance +2.0 Brest
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.7 Lorient

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Brest. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Lorient attack & chance creation +4.9 Under
Lorient defense +3.7 Under
Brest attack & chance creation +3.1 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Brest defense +1.9 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 9 6 2 1 21 10 11 20
2 Rennes 9 5 1 3 20 19 1 16
3 Lille 8 4 3 1 11 6 5 15
4 Monaco 8 4 3 1 11 7 4 15
5 Lyon 8 4 2 2 13 7 6 14
6 Paris FC 8 4 2 2 13 9 4 14
7 Nice 9 4 2 3 13 12 1 14
8 Lens 8 4 1 3 16 12 4 13
9 Marseille 8 4 0 4 18 13 5 12
10 Lorient 8 3 3 2 7 6 1 12
11 Toulouse 8 2 4 2 12 11 1 10
12 Auxerre 8 3 1 4 12 18 -6 10
13 Brest 8 2 3 3 14 12 2 9
14 Angers 8 2 2 4 9 15 -6 8
15 Le Mans 8 1 4 3 11 16 -5 7
16 Strasbourg 8 2 1 5 12 18 -6 7
17 Troyes 8 1 2 5 5 16 -11 5
18 Le Havre 9 0 2 7 9 20 -11 2

Recent Trends

Lorient D W W L D

  • Last Match: D vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Le Mans (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 2)

Brest L D W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lorient

xG (avg) 0.99
xGA (avg) 1.10
Clean Sheets 3

Brest

xG (avg) 1.68
xGA (avg) 1.30
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Brest are the likeliest winners at 40%, with Lorient at 33% and a draw at 27%. The lean is under 2.5 goals, at 51%.

Match Analysis

Lorient’s home advantage and recent defensive solidity help keep this close: they have three clean sheets in their last five matches and won their latest two home games, 1-0 against Monaco and 1-0 against Paris FC. Their latest result was a 0-0 draw away to Angers. Brest’s stronger chance creation and attack are the main counterweight. They have averaged 1.7 expected goals away from home, above their 1.5 goals scored there, suggesting their chances have been worth more than their returns. Their latest match was a 1-2 home loss to Nice, after a 1-1 draw away to Lille and a 5-1 win over Angers. Brest have kept no clean sheets in their last five, which gives Lorient a route into the game.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lorient
Goals in last 5 matches
Brest
Goals in last 5 matches
Under 2.5 goals is a narrow lean at 51%. Lorient’s attack and chance creation, along with their defending, point toward a lower total, though Brest’s attacking threat pulls the other way.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lorient
Corners in last 5 matches
Brest
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.1 corners. Recent matches offer a similar picture, with 13 corners in Lorient’s draw at Angers and 10 in Brest’s loss to Nice.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lorient
Shots in last 5 matches
Brest
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 25 shots in total. Lorient and Monaco combined for 24 in their recent meeting, while Brest and Nice had 22.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Lorient wins by X goals. Negative = Brest wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Lorient vs Brest with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Lorient vs Brest
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.2 goals in Brest’s favour. That points to a narrow away advantage rather than a clear gap between the teams.

Final Prediction

Lorient’s defensive record at home could overturn the forecast if it limits Brest’s stronger chance creation. Brest’s failure to keep a clean sheet in their last five also leaves room for Lorient to make its home advantage count.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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