Ligue 1 2025-2026: Lyon vs Toulouse Prediction

Lyon

Home Team
82%
VS

Toulouse

Away Team
8%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 6 5 0 1 12 4 8 15
2 Lyon 6 5 0 1 8 3 5 15
3 Marseille 6 4 0 2 12 5 7 12
4 Monaco 6 4 0 2 14 10 4 12
5 Strasbourg 6 4 0 2 9 7 2 12
6 Lille 6 3 1 2 13 9 4 10
7 Lens 6 3 1 2 8 5 3 10
8 Rennes 6 2 3 1 7 8 -1 9
9 Brest 6 2 1 3 11 11 0 7
10 Toulouse 6 2 1 3 9 11 -2 7
11 Paris FC 6 2 1 3 10 13 -3 7
12 Nice 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
13 Lorient 6 2 1 3 9 14 -5 7
14 Auxerre 6 2 0 4 4 8 -4 6
15 Le Havre 6 1 2 3 6 8 -2 5
16 Nantes 6 1 2 3 5 7 -2 5
17 Angers 6 1 2 3 3 6 -3 5
18 Metz 6 0 2 4 5 13 -8 2

Recent Trends

Lyon ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 0)

Toulouse ⚪ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Paris SG (Goals: 3 - 6)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lyon

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.57
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.69
# Clean Sheets: 4

Toulouse

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.08
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.42
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Lyon and Toulouse is heavily tilted in favor of the home team. With an 82.0% probability of securing victory, Lyon is the clear favorite in this matchup. The predicted result indicates a home win, complemented by a likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 52.0%. Lyon currently sits in 2nd place in the Ligue 1 standings, while Toulouse holds the 10th spot.

Match Analysis

Lyon enters this fixture on the back of two consecutive wins against Lille and Angers, showcasing their defensive solidity with clean sheets in both encounters. Despite a setback against Rennes, where they conceded three goals, Lyon's recent form overall has been impressive. The team boasts an average of 1.67 goals scored per game in their last five outings, along with a remarkable average of 2.57 expected goals, indicating a potent attacking threat. Toulouse, on the other hand, has struggled to find consistency. A draw against Nantes was followed by two away losses to Auxerre and Lille. Their performance has been marred by a lack of offensive firepower, averaging just 0.67 goals per game in their previous five matches. Defensively, they have conceded an average of 1.0 goal per game, highlighting vulnerabilities that Lyon could exploit.

Final Prediction

Lyon's robust defense and superior attacking metrics give them a significant edge over Toulouse in this contest. The home side's ability to maintain clean sheets and create scoring opportunities positions them as formidable adversaries. A key factor to watch will be how Lyon's attack capitalizes on Toulouse's defensive frailties, potentially leading to a high-scoring affair.