Ligue 1 2025-2026: Metz vs Lens Prediction

Metz

Home Team
7%
VS

Lens

Away Team
85%
Draw: 8%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 9 6 2 1 19 8 11 20
2 Lens 9 6 1 2 14 8 6 19
3 Marseille 9 6 0 3 22 9 13 18
4 Lyon 9 6 0 3 13 9 4 18
5 Lille 9 5 2 2 22 11 11 17
6 Monaco 9 5 2 2 18 13 5 17
7 Strasbourg 9 5 1 3 18 12 6 16
8 Nice 9 4 2 3 14 15 -1 14
9 Toulouse 9 4 1 4 15 13 2 13
10 Rennes 9 2 5 2 12 14 -2 11
11 Paris FC 9 3 1 5 14 17 -3 10
12 Brest 9 2 3 4 14 17 -3 9
13 Nantes 9 2 3 4 7 10 -3 9
14 Le Havre 9 2 3 4 11 16 -5 9
15 Angers 9 2 3 4 6 12 -6 9
16 Lorient 9 2 2 5 12 21 -9 8
17 Auxerre 9 2 1 6 7 13 -6 7
18 Metz 9 0 2 7 6 26 -20 2

Recent Trends

Metz ❌ ❌ ❌ ⚪ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 6)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 5)

Lens ✅ ✅ ✅ ⚪ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Auxerre (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Lille (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Metz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.62
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.45
# Clean Sheets: 1

Lens

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.12
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.49
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Metz and Lens is heavily tipped in favor of Lens, with an 85.0% probability of an away win. Metz, currently languishing at the bottom of the Ligue 1 table in 18th position, face a daunting task against a high-flying Lens team that sits comfortably in 2nd place. With a predicted result of under 2.5 goals and a 55% probability of goals being scored, this match promises a strategic battle rather than a goal fest.

Match Analysis

Metz's recent performances have been disappointing, with three consecutive losses, including a heavy 6-1 defeat to Lille and a 4-0 loss against Toulouse. Their struggle is evident as they have only scored once in these games while conceding 13 goals. Their advanced metrics show an average of just 0.25 goals scored per game in their last five outings, highlighting a lack of offensive threat. On the other side, Lens comes into this match with strong momentum, having secured victories in their last three games against Marseille, Paris FC, and Auxerre, each by a 2-1 scoreline. Lens's ability to consistently find the back of the net is underscored by their average of 1.0 goals scored per game and two clean sheets in their last five matches. Such consistent performances have bolstered their position near the top of the table and make them formidable opponents.

Final Prediction

Lens's superior form and position in the league give them a significant edge over Metz. Their recent string of victories and ability to maintain defensive solidity are key factors in their favor. Fans should watch for Lens's attacking prowess and how Metz will attempt to counter it in what is expected to be a challenging match for the home side.