Ligue 1 2025-2026: Metz vs Paris SG Prediction

Metz

Home Team
0%
VS

Paris SG

Away Team
99%
Draw: 1%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 15 11 1 3 26 13 13 34
2 Paris SG 15 10 3 2 32 12 20 33
3 Marseille 15 9 2 4 35 15 20 29
4 Lille 15 9 2 4 29 17 12 29
5 Lyon 15 7 3 5 21 16 5 24
6 Rennes 15 6 6 3 24 23 1 24
7 Monaco 15 7 2 6 26 26 0 23
8 Strasbourg 15 7 1 7 25 20 5 22
9 Toulouse 15 5 5 5 21 19 2 20
10 Brest 15 5 4 6 20 24 -4 19
11 Angers 15 5 4 6 13 17 -4 19
12 Nice 15 5 2 8 19 27 -8 17
13 Lorient 15 4 5 6 19 28 -9 17
14 Paris FC 15 4 4 7 21 26 -5 16
15 Le Havre 15 3 6 6 13 21 -8 15
16 Auxerre 15 3 3 9 11 21 -10 12
17 Nantes 15 2 5 8 13 24 -11 11
18 Metz 15 3 2 10 15 34 -19 11

Recent Trends

Metz ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Brest (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 0)

Paris SG ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Rennes (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Le Havre (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Lyon (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Metz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.26
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.22
# Clean Sheets: 1

Paris SG

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.82
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.82
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Metz and Paris Saint-Germain is heavily skewed in favor of the visitors, with a staggering 99.0% probability of a PSG victory. Metz's chances of pulling off an upset are practically nonexistent, given their 0.0% probability of winning. The game is also expected to be high-scoring, with a 61.0% chance of over 2.5 goals. Currently, PSG is in a strong position, sitting 2nd in the Ligue 1 standings, while Metz is struggling at 18th, fighting to avoid relegation.

Match Analysis

Metz has been grappling with a string of defeats, losing their last three matches against Auxerre, Rennes, and Brest. Their performances have been lackluster, scoring only three goals while conceding seven. Their offensive struggles are evident, with an average of 0.8 goals scored per game in their last five fixtures. Defensively, they have been slightly better, conceding an average of 1.0 goals per match, and have managed one clean sheet in the same period. However, their expected goals metrics suggest they should be performing slightly better, with a positive differential between expected goals scored and conceded. Paris Saint-Germain, on the other hand, has shown more resilience, winning two of their last three games, including a dominant 5-0 victory over Rennes. Their ability to keep three clean sheets in their last five matches highlights their defensive solidity. PSG's attacking prowess is underscored by their average of 1.6 goals per game and 1.82 expected goals, suggesting a vibrant offense capable of breaking down defenses. Despite a hiccup against Monaco, PSG's recent form and advanced metrics place them as firm favorites in this matchup.

Final Prediction

Paris Saint-Germain's superior form and statistical advantages give them a clear edge over Metz. Their strong defensive record combined with a potent attack makes them formidable opponents, especially against a struggling Metz side. Fans should watch out for PSG's ability to capitalize on their scoring opportunities, as this will likely be a decisive factor in the game.