Ligue 1 2025-2026: Nantes vs Lens Prediction
Nantes
Home Team
4%
VS
Lens
Away Team
92%
Draw: 5%
Over 2.5:
54%
Under 2.5:
46%
Goal:
53%
No Goal:
47%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lens | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 31 |
| 2 | Paris SG | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 30 |
| 3 | Marseille | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 29 |
| 4 | Lille | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 26 |
| 5 | Rennes | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 24 |
| 6 | Lyon | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 24 |
| 7 | Monaco | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 23 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 22 |
| 9 | Toulouse | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 17 |
| 10 | Nice | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 17 |
| 11 | Brest | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 16 |
| 12 | Angers | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 16 |
| 13 | Paris FC | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 15 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 14 |
| 15 | Lorient | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 14 |
| 16 | Nantes | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 11 |
| 17 | Metz | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 31 | -17 | 11 |
| 18 | Auxerre | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
Recent Trends
Nantes
- Last Match: vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Metz (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 5th Last Match: vs Monaco (Goals: 3 - 5)
Lens
- Last Match: vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Monaco (Goals: 4 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Lorient (Goals: 3 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Metz (Goals: 0 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Nantes
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.51
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.00
# Clean Sheets:
0
Lens
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.69
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.90
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming match between Nantes and Lens is heavily tilted in favor of the visitors, with a 92.0% probability of Lens securing a victory. The likelihood of a home win for Nantes is significantly lower, standing at just 4.0%. Lens currently leads the Ligue 1 standings, while Nantes is struggling near the bottom, positioned at 16th. The game is also expected to see over 2.5 goals scored, which is consistent with the prediction of a high-scoring encounter.
Match Analysis
Nantes has been struggling to find their form, managing only two draws and a loss in their last three matches. They drew against Lorient and Le Havre, both with a scoreline of 1-1, and suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat to Lyon. A worrying trend for Nantes is their inability to keep a clean sheet in recent games, coupled with an average of 2.4 goals conceded per game in their last five outings. Their expected goals metrics suggest they are creating chances, but their defense continues to be a vulnerability.
In contrast, Lens has been in excellent form, winning all of their last three games. They have displayed a solid defensive performance, keeping two clean sheets in their recent matches. Lens's attack has been potent, averaging 1.6 goals per game over the last five matches, with a notable 4-1 victory against Monaco highlighting their offensive prowess. Their expected goals both scored and conceded indicate a well-balanced team capable of both creating and denying chances.
Final Prediction
Lens's dominant position as league leaders and their recent track record give them a clear edge over Nantes in this matchup. Their strong defensive setup combined with a capable attack makes them formidable opponents. A key factor to watch will be Lens's ability to capitalize on Nantes's defensive frailties, which could lead to a high-scoring game in favor of the visitors.