Ligue 1 2025-2026: Nantes vs Metz Prediction

Nantes

Home Team
69%
VS

Metz

Away Team
16%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 10 6 3 1 20 9 11 21
2 Monaco 10 6 2 2 23 16 7 20
3 Marseille 10 6 1 3 24 11 13 19
4 Strasbourg 10 6 1 3 21 12 9 19
5 Lyon 10 6 1 3 16 12 4 19
6 Lens 10 6 1 3 14 10 4 19
7 Lille 10 5 2 3 22 13 9 17
8 Nice 10 5 2 3 16 15 1 17
9 Toulouse 10 4 2 4 17 15 2 14
10 Rennes 10 2 6 2 14 16 -2 12
11 Le Havre 10 3 3 4 12 16 -4 12
12 Paris FC 10 3 2 5 17 20 -3 11
13 Angers 10 2 4 4 8 14 -6 10
14 Brest 10 2 3 5 14 18 -4 9
15 Nantes 10 2 3 5 10 15 -5 9
16 Lorient 10 2 3 5 13 22 -9 9
17 Auxerre 10 2 1 7 7 16 -9 7
18 Metz 10 1 2 7 8 26 -18 5

Recent Trends

Nantes ❌ ✅ ❌ ⚪ ⚪

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Monaco (Goals: 3 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 2)

Metz ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ⚪

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lens (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 6)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: ⚪ vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Nantes

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.22
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.15
# Clean Sheets: 1

Metz

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.03
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 3.17
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Nantes is predicted to come out victorious against Metz with a strong probability of 69.0%. The likelihood of Metz winning is significantly lower at 16.0%, and the chance of a draw stands at 15.0%. The game is expected to have fewer than 2.5 goals, with a 49.0% probability, indicating a tight contest. Currently, Nantes sits in 15th place, while Metz is languishing at the bottom of the Ligue 1 table in 18th position.

Match Analysis

Nantes' recent form has been a mixed bag, with a notable win against Paris FC (2-1) away from home. However, they have struggled against tougher opponents, suffering defeats to Monaco (3-5) and Lille (0-2) at home. Over their last five games, Nantes has managed an average of 1.2 goals per match but has conceded an average of 2.0 goals, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Their expected goals metrics align closely with these numbers, indicating their performance has been consistent with their play. On the other hand, Metz has found it challenging to secure points, with a recent heavy loss to Lille (1-6) and a defeat against Toulouse (0-4) away. However, they showed resilience with a win over Lens (2-0) at home. Metz averages 1.0 goal per game but concedes a concerning 4.2 goals on average, underlining defensive frailties. Their expected goals figures suggest that they are underperforming both offensively and defensively, which poses a significant challenge.

Final Prediction

Nantes is poised to leverage their home advantage against a Metz team that has been struggling defensively. The key factor to watch will be whether Nantes can capitalize on Metz's defensive lapses, given their own recent scoring ability. With both teams showing weaknesses at the back, the match may well hinge on defensive organization and the ability to seize opportunities.