Ligue 1 2025-2026: Nice vs Lens Prediction - 2 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Nice

Home Team
18%
VS

Lens

Away Team
64%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 25.7
Expected Spread: -1.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 30 22 3 5 68 25 43 69
2 Lens 30 20 3 7 60 32 28 63
3 Lyon 31 17 6 8 48 32 16 57
4 Lille 31 17 6 8 50 34 16 57
5 Rennes 31 16 8 7 54 42 12 56
6 Marseille 31 16 5 10 59 41 18 53
7 Monaco 31 15 6 10 54 47 7 51
8 Strasbourg 30 13 7 10 49 39 10 46
9 Lorient 31 10 11 10 42 47 -5 41
10 Toulouse 31 10 8 13 43 44 -1 38
11 Brest 30 10 8 12 41 47 -6 38
12 Paris FC 31 9 11 11 40 47 -7 38
13 Angers 31 9 7 15 26 43 -17 34
14 Le Havre 31 6 13 12 29 42 -13 31
15 Nice 31 7 9 15 35 57 -22 30
16 Auxerre 31 5 10 16 27 42 -15 25
17 Nantes 31 4 8 19 26 51 -25 20
18 Metz 31 3 7 21 31 70 -39 16

Recent Trends

Nice D D D L L

  • Last Match: D vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 4)

Lens D W L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Brest (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Nice

xG (avg) 1.64
xGA (avg) 2.17
Clean Sheets 1

Lens

xG (avg) 2.04
xGA (avg) 1.55
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Lens are clear favourites here, with a 64.0% chance of taking all three points away at Nice, who are hovering dangerously in 15th place on 30 points, while Lens sit second and firmly in the Champions League spots on 63 points. The model points towards an away win combined with an over 2.5 prediction, with a 60.0% probability that the game produces at least three goals.

Match Analysis

Nice come into this under pressure, stuck in a run of three consecutive draws: 1-1 at Marseille, 0-0 at Lille and 1-1 at home to Le Havre. Those results look solid on paper, but they mask a fragile defence: over the last five matches, Nice have conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game, with only one clean sheet. Their attack isn’t firing either, averaging just 0.8 goals scored despite a healthier 1.644 expected goals, suggesting wastefulness in front of goal rather than a complete lack of chances. Lens, by contrast, look much more dangerous going forward. They have taken seven points from their last three – a 3-3 thriller at Brest, a 3-2 home win over Toulouse and a 0-3 loss at Lille. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 2.0 goals scored and 2.042 xG, underlining a consistent ability to create. Defensively they are not watertight, conceding 1.8 goals on average with 1.554 xG against and no clean sheets in that run, but their attacking edge and league position point towards them having too much for a Nice side struggling at both ends of the pitch.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Nice
Goals in last 5 matches
Lens
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0%, and recent scorelines back that up. Two of Lens’ last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-3 vs Brest, 3-2 vs Toulouse), while none of Nice’s last three have done so, all finishing with two goals or fewer. Even so, the combination of Lens averaging 2.0 goals scored and 2.042 xG, and Nice conceding 2.4 goals per match with 2.17 xG against, points towards a game more likely to break the under 2.5 barrier than not.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Nice
Corners in last 5 matches
Lens
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total stands at 9.49, roughly in line with what these sides have been producing. Nice’s last three outings saw combined corner counts of 8, 8 and 7, while Lens matches were far more explosive on that front, with 6, 15 and 6 corners. Given how aggressively Lens attack – racking up 14 corners alone against Toulouse – the corners prediction of around 9–10 flags a match in which the away side’s front-foot style should generate a steady flow of set-piece situations.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Nice
Shots in last 5 matches
Lens
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.73, which fits the recent trends. Nice’s last three games produced 29, 14 and 26 total shots, while Lens have been prolific, with shot totals of 31, a remarkable 46 against Toulouse, and 18 versus Lille. That volume links neatly to Lens’ strong xG numbers and attacking output, so a shots prediction in the mid‑20s suggests a game where Lens do most of the shooting and Nice try to play on moments rather than sustained pressure.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Nice wins by X goals. Negative = Lens wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Nice vs Lens with expected spread of -1.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Nice vs Lens
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -1.06 (home minus away), meaning the expected spread clearly favours Lens by just over a goal. Recent form reflects that: Nice’s last three games all finished level with a neutral goal difference, while Lens have a +1 goal difference over their last three despite the heavy loss at Lille, thanks to two high-scoring displays. Coupled with the 64.0% away win probability and Lens’ superior attacking and defensive metrics, the expected spread underlines the visitors’ strong advantage.

Final Prediction

Lens have the edge because they combine a potent attack with much stronger overall form and a top‑of‑the‑table mindset, while Nice are leaking goals over the longer run and struggling to turn xG into results. The key factor to watch will be how Nice’s vulnerable back line copes with the volume and intensity of Lens’ attacks; if they get pinned back early, the visitors look well placed to turn their statistical superiority into a comfortable away win.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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