Ligue 1 2026-2027: Paris FC vs Monaco Prediction - 1 Nov 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Paris FC

Home Team
47%
VS

Monaco

Away Team
26%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 8.8
Expected Shots: 23.4
Expected Spread: +0.4

Why the Model Leans Paris FC

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Paris FC
Chance creation (xG data) +5.4 Paris FC
Defense +1.7 Monaco
Attack +1.5 Monaco
Results & dominance +0.6 Monaco

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 64% for Paris FC. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Paris FC attack & chance creation +3.7 Over
Paris FC defense +2.8 Under
Monaco defense +2.7 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Monaco attack & chance creation +0.5 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 9 6 2 1 21 10 11 20
2 Rennes 9 5 1 3 20 19 1 16
3 Lille 8 4 3 1 11 6 5 15
4 Monaco 8 4 3 1 11 7 4 15
5 Lyon 8 4 2 2 13 7 6 14
6 Paris FC 8 4 2 2 13 9 4 14
7 Nice 9 4 2 3 13 12 1 14
8 Lens 8 4 1 3 16 12 4 13
9 Marseille 8 4 0 4 18 13 5 12
10 Lorient 8 3 3 2 7 6 1 12
11 Toulouse 8 2 4 2 12 11 1 10
12 Auxerre 8 3 1 4 12 18 -6 10
13 Brest 8 2 3 3 14 12 2 9
14 Angers 8 2 2 4 9 15 -6 8
15 Le Mans 8 1 4 3 11 16 -5 7
16 Strasbourg 8 2 1 5 12 18 -6 7
17 Troyes 8 1 2 5 5 16 -11 5
18 Le Havre 9 0 2 7 9 20 -11 2

Recent Trends

Paris FC L W L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Rennes (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 0)

Monaco D L D W D

  • Last Match: D vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lens (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Paris FC

xG (avg) 1.89
xGA (avg) 1.06
Clean Sheets 1

Monaco

xG (avg) 0.88
xGA (avg) 1.40
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Paris FC are the likeliest winners at 47%, with a draw at 27% and a Monaco win at 26%. The goals forecast leans over 2.5, at 52%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage and stronger chance creation are the main reasons Paris FC are favoured. They have averaged 2.3 goals at home, compared with 1.9 expected goals, suggesting their finishing has outpaced the chances created. That attacking threat could matter against a Monaco side whose away performances have produced a modest 0.9 expected goals per game. Paris FC’s 4-3 home win over Rennes came before a 1-2 loss at Lens, following a 0-1 defeat at Lorient. Monaco have gone three matches without a win, drawing 1-1 with Lille after a 0-1 loss at Lorient, with a 2-2 draw against Toulouse before that. The visitors’ defensive record gives them a route into the game, but Paris FC’s home form and chance creation tilt the forecast their way.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Paris FC
Goals in last 5 matches
Monaco
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is a narrow lean at 52%. Paris FC’s attacking output and chance creation point toward goals, though the defensive numbers on both sides are a counterweight.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Paris FC
Corners in last 5 matches
Monaco
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 8.8 corners. Both teams had seven corners in their most recent matches, despite very different splits: Paris FC earned one against Lens, while Monaco earned six against Lille.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Paris FC
Shots in last 5 matches
Monaco
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 23 shots. Monaco managed 21 against Lille, while Paris FC had only four against Lens, showing how much shot volume may depend on the home side finding its attacking rhythm.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Paris FC wins by X goals. Negative = Monaco wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Paris FC vs Monaco with expected spread of +0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Paris FC vs Monaco
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.4 goals in Paris FC’s favour. That is a modest home lean, rather than a forecast of a comfortable win.

Final Prediction

Monaco’s away defence could upset the forecast if it limits Paris FC’s home attack. But the visitors have not kept a clean sheet in their last five matches, leaving the home side room to turn its chances into goals.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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