Ligue 1 2026-2027: Paris FC vs Rennes Prediction - 18 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Paris FC

Home Team
44%
VS

Rennes

Away Team
29%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 27.0
Expected Spread: +0.3

Why the Model Leans Paris FC

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Paris FC
Attack +3.5 Rennes
Results & dominance +2.0 Rennes
Chance creation (xG data) +1.1 Paris FC
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +0.9 Paris FC

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 60% for Paris FC. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Paris FC defense +11.8 Under
Rennes attack & chance creation +4.9 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Paris FC attack & chance creation +2.0 Over
Rennes defense +1.9 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 52% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Monaco 6 4 2 0 10 5 5 14
2 Lille 6 4 1 1 9 4 5 13
3 Rennes 6 4 1 1 12 10 2 13
4 Lyon 6 3 2 1 11 4 7 11
5 Paris FC 6 3 2 1 8 4 4 11
6 Paris SG 6 3 2 1 11 8 3 11
7 Brest 6 2 2 2 12 9 3 8
8 Lorient 6 2 2 2 6 6 0 8
9 Nice 6 2 2 2 5 7 -2 8
10 Lens 6 2 1 3 11 10 1 7
11 Strasbourg 6 2 1 3 11 12 -1 7
12 Angers 6 2 1 3 7 10 -3 7
13 Marseille 6 2 0 4 9 8 1 6
14 Le Mans 6 1 3 2 10 12 -2 6
15 Toulouse 6 1 3 2 9 11 -2 6
16 Auxerre 6 2 0 4 8 16 -8 6
17 Troyes 6 1 1 4 4 13 -9 4
18 Le Havre 6 0 2 4 4 8 -4 2

Recent Trends

Paris FC L W D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 3 - 0)

Rennes W L W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Le Mans (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Paris FC

xG (avg) 1.50
xGA (avg) 0.41
Clean Sheets 2

Rennes

xG (avg) 1.48
xGA (avg) 2.03
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Paris FC are the likeliest winners at 44%, with a draw at 28% and a Rennes win at 29%. Goals lean just over 2.5, at 52%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest separator. Paris FC have conceded only four goals in six league matches and kept two clean sheets in their last five. Rennes have the stronger scoring record, but their away chance creation has not fully translated into goals: they have averaged 1.0 goal away from home against 1.5 expected goals. Rennes beat Auxerre 4-1 last time out, after losing 0-4 away at Lyon. Paris FC’s latest result was a 0-1 loss away at Lorient, following a 2-1 home win over Strasbourg. Rennes’ recent results underline their attacking threat, while Paris FC’s home defending gives the hosts a steadier base.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Paris FC
Goals in last 5 matches
Rennes
Goals in last 5 matches
The slight lean is over 2.5 goals at 52%, though Paris FC’s defensive strength is the main reason to expect a lower-scoring game. Rennes’ attack and chance creation, together with the league scoring environment, pull the outlook toward goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Paris FC
Corners in last 5 matches
Rennes
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 9.3 corners. The latest matches featured 12 corners in Paris FC’s game against Lorient and 17 in Rennes’ win over Auxerre.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Paris FC
Shots in last 5 matches
Rennes
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 27 shots in total, pointing to plenty of attempts. Paris FC took 17 shots against Lorient, while Rennes had 21 against Auxerre.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Paris FC wins by X goals. Negative = Rennes wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Paris FC vs Rennes with expected spread of +0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Paris FC vs Rennes
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected margin is about 0.3 goals in Paris FC’s favour. That is a narrow advantage, consistent with the close win probabilities.

Final Prediction

Rennes’ away chance creation could overturn the forecast if they convert more reliably than their scoring record suggests. Paris FC’s ability to maintain their home defensive solidity is the counterweight.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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