Ligue 1 2025-2026: Toulouse vs Nice Prediction

Toulouse

Home Team
52%
VS

Nice

Away Team
26%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 17 13 1 3 31 13 18 40
2 Paris SG 17 12 3 2 37 15 22 39
3 Marseille 17 10 2 5 36 17 19 32
4 Lille 17 10 2 5 33 22 11 32
5 Lyon 17 9 3 5 25 17 8 30
6 Rennes 17 8 6 3 29 24 5 30
7 Strasbourg 17 7 3 7 26 21 5 24
8 Toulouse 17 6 5 6 24 22 2 23
9 Monaco 17 7 2 8 27 30 -3 23
10 Angers 17 6 4 7 18 20 -2 22
11 Brest 17 6 4 7 23 27 -4 22
12 Lorient 17 4 7 6 20 29 -9 19
13 Le Havre 17 4 6 7 15 23 -8 18
14 Nice 17 5 3 9 20 30 -10 18
15 Paris FC 17 4 4 9 22 31 -9 16
16 Nantes 17 3 5 9 16 28 -12 14
17 Auxerre 17 3 3 11 14 27 -13 12
18 Metz 17 3 3 11 18 38 -20 12

Recent Trends

Toulouse ❌ ✅ ✅ ⚪ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Paris FC (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 1)

Nice ⚪ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 5)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Toulouse

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.13
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.08
# Clean Sheets: 2

Nice

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.82
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.03
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the upcoming clash between Toulouse and Nice, Toulouse is favored to emerge victorious with a 52.0% probability, while Nice holds a 26.0% chance of winning. The likelihood of a draw stands at 22.0%. The predicted result is a home win for Toulouse, with the expectation of fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. Currently, Toulouse sits in 8th place in the Ligue 1 standings, whereas Nice is positioned further down at 14th.

Match Analysis

Toulouse has shown mixed form in their last three matches, securing two wins and suffering a loss. Their recent home victory against Strasbourg and an away win over Paris FC demonstrate their capability to earn crucial points. However, a heavy home defeat to Lens highlights vulnerabilities that Nice might look to exploit. Interestingly, Toulouse's advanced metrics indicate a solid defensive structure, with an average of 1.2 goals conceded per game in their last five outings and keeping two clean sheets. Nice, on the other hand, is struggling to find form, with two losses and a draw in their last three games. They managed to secure a point against Strasbourg but failed to score in their losses to Lens and Angers. Nice's defense has been leaky, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game, and they are yet to keep a clean sheet in their recent performances. Their expected goals conceded figure of 2.034 suggests potential defensive frailties, making it challenging for them to contain a Toulouse side eager to capitalize on home advantage.

Final Prediction

Toulouse's edge in this matchup can be attributed to their superior league standing and recent ability to secure wins, particularly at home. Their defensive resilience, coupled with Nice's struggles in both scoring and defending, tilts the scales in favor of a Toulouse victory. A key factor to watch during the game will be Toulouse's ability to convert chances and maintain defensive solidity, which could be decisive in securing the predicted win.