Ligue 1 2026-2027: Toulouse vs Troyes Prediction - 25 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Toulouse

Home Team
67%
VS

Troyes

Away Team
14%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 26.7
Expected Spread: +0.9

Why the Model Leans Toulouse

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Toulouse
Chance creation (xG data) +8.3 Toulouse
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +4.5 Toulouse
Attack +3.6 Toulouse
Defense +3.2 Toulouse

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 82% for Toulouse. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Toulouse attack & chance creation +5.6 Over
Toulouse defense +2.6 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Form & results +1.0 Over
Troyes defense +0.9 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lyon 7 4 2 1 13 5 8 14
2 Paris SG 7 4 2 1 14 9 5 14
3 Paris FC 7 4 2 1 12 7 5 14
4 Lille 7 4 2 1 10 5 5 14
5 Monaco 7 4 2 1 10 6 4 14
6 Rennes 7 4 1 2 15 14 1 13
7 Lorient 7 3 2 2 7 6 1 11
8 Lens 7 3 1 3 14 11 3 10
9 Marseille 7 3 0 4 14 10 4 9
10 Brest 7 2 3 2 13 10 3 9
11 Toulouse 7 2 3 2 12 11 1 9
12 Auxerre 7 3 0 4 11 17 -6 9
13 Nice 7 2 2 3 6 9 -3 8
14 Strasbourg 7 2 1 4 12 15 -3 7
15 Angers 7 2 1 4 9 15 -6 7
16 Le Mans 7 1 3 3 10 15 -5 6
17 Troyes 7 1 1 5 5 16 -11 4
18 Le Havre 7 0 2 5 5 11 -6 2

Recent Trends

Toulouse W D W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Le Mans (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)

Troyes L L L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 6)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Toulouse

xG (avg) 2.65
xGA (avg) 1.32
Clean Sheets 1

Troyes

xG (avg) 1.06
xGA (avg) 1.82
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Toulouse are favoured to win, with a 67% chance, against 14% for Troyes and 19% for a draw. The lean is towards over 2.5 goals, at 59%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage and Toulouse’s stronger chance creation are the clearest differences. At home, Toulouse have averaged 2.7 expected goals but scored 1.0 goal, suggesting their finishing has lagged behind the quality of chances they have made. Turning more of those opportunities into goals would strengthen their position. Toulouse are unbeaten in three, most recently winning 3-0 away to Le Mans. Troyes have lost three straight, with their latest setback a 1-3 home defeat to Lens. That run leaves Troyes with little margin for defensive mistakes, while Toulouse will look to carry their recent scoring form into this home fixture.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Toulouse
Goals in last 5 matches
Troyes
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 59%. Toulouse’s attack and chance creation provide the strongest push towards a higher total, while their defensive record is a counterweight.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Toulouse
Corners in last 5 matches
Troyes
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected total is 9.9 corners. Recent matches offer no especially strong trend, but Toulouse’s home meeting with Le Havre produced 13 corners, while the forecast points to a busy set-piece count.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Toulouse
Shots in last 5 matches
Troyes
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 27 shots. Recent matches show both teams can contribute to high shot counts, with Toulouse recording 13 against Le Mans and Troyes taking 15 against Marseille.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Toulouse wins by X goals. Negative = Troyes wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Toulouse vs Troyes with expected spread of +0.9
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Toulouse vs Troyes
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Toulouse are projected to finish about 0.9 goals ahead. Their home advantage and greater capacity to create chances support that margin, though their home scoring average indicates conversion is not assured.

Final Prediction

Troyes’ best route to overturning the forecast is to exploit Toulouse’s gap between chances and goals. If Toulouse again fail to finish the opportunities they create, Troyes could keep the match close.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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