Premier League 2024-2025: Arsenal vs Bournemouth Prediction

Arsenal

Home Team
78%
VS

Bournemouth

Away Team
10%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5: 59%
Under 2.5: 41%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Liverpool 34 25 7 2 80 32 48 82
2 Arsenal 34 18 13 3 63 29 34 67
3 Newcastle 34 19 5 10 65 44 21 62
4 Man City 34 18 7 9 66 43 23 61
5 Chelsea 34 17 9 8 59 40 19 60
6 Nott'm Forest 34 18 6 10 53 41 12 60
7 Aston Villa 34 16 9 9 54 49 5 57
8 Fulham 34 14 9 11 50 46 4 51
9 Brighton 34 13 12 9 56 55 1 51
10 Bournemouth 34 13 11 10 53 41 12 50
11 Brentford 34 14 7 13 58 50 8 49
12 Crystal Palace 34 11 12 11 43 47 -4 45
13 Wolves 34 12 5 17 51 61 -10 41
14 Man United 34 10 9 15 39 47 -8 39
15 Everton 34 8 14 12 34 41 -7 38
16 Tottenham 34 11 4 19 62 56 6 37
17 West Ham 34 9 9 16 39 58 -19 36
18 Ipswich 34 4 9 21 33 74 -41 21
19 Leicester 34 4 6 24 27 76 -49 18
20 Southampton 34 2 5 27 25 80 -55 11

Recent Trends

Arsenal ⚪ ✅ ⚪ ⚪ ✅

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ipswich (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Brentford (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs Everton (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Fulham (Goals: 2 - 1)

Bournemouth ⚪ ⚪ ✅ ⚪ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ⚪ vs West Ham (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ipswich (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Arsenal

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.41
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.17
# Clean Sheets: 1

Bournemouth

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.73
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.23
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Arsenal is predicted to triumph over Bournemouth with a commanding probability of 78.0%. The encounter is also forecasted to have over 2.5 goals with a 59.0% likelihood, suggesting an action-packed match at the Emirates Stadium. Arsenal currently sits in the second position in the Premier League, while Bournemouth is positioned at 10th, making this a crucial fixture for both clubs for different reasons.

Match Analysis

Both teams come into this fixture with contrasting recent performances. Arsenal's last three outings have seen them draw twice against Crystal Palace and Brentford and secure a comprehensive 4-0 victory over Ipswich. This mix of results indicates a team that is solid defensively, conceding only three goals across these games, yet occasionally struggles to convert their dominance into wins, as highlighted by their two draws. Bournemouth, on the other hand, has shown resilience in their recent matches, maintaining an unbeaten streak with a win against Fulham and draws against Manchester United and Crystal Palace. Their ability to keep clean sheets in two of these contests is a testament to their defensive organization, although they have not been particularly prolific in front of goal, scoring just two goals in these three games. From an advanced metrics perspective, Arsenal's recent games show they score an average of 1.2 goals and concede 1.0 per match, with expected goals figures slightly higher at 1.412 for and 1.172 against. Meanwhile, Bournemouth averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with expected goals at 1.726 for and 1.23 against. These metrics suggest that while Bournemouth has been more productive in attack recently, Arsenal's defensive stability might be the differentiator.

Final Prediction

Arsenal's higher league standing and superior probability of winning underline their edge over Bournemouth. Their ability to maintain defensive solidity, coupled with occasional bursts of attacking prowess, positions them as the favorites. Fans should watch out for Arsenal's tactical approach to breaking down Bournemouth's defense, which could be the key to unlocking a decisive victory in this intriguing Premier League matchup.