Premier League 2026-2027: Bournemouth vs Sunderland Prediction - 18 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Bournemouth

Home Team
48%
VS

Sunderland

Away Team
25%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 24.0
Expected Spread: +0.6

Why the Model Leans Bournemouth

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Bournemouth
Attack +2.8 Bournemouth
Defense +1.6 Bournemouth
Results & dominance +1.3 Bournemouth
Chance creation (xG data) +1.1 Sunderland

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 66% for Bournemouth. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Bournemouth attack & chance creation +3.6 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 6 6 0 0 16 5 11 18
2 Arsenal 6 5 0 1 10 5 5 15
3 Brighton 6 4 1 1 18 5 13 13
4 Brentford 6 2 4 0 12 6 6 10
5 Everton 6 2 4 0 8 5 3 10
6 Chelsea 6 3 1 2 15 13 2 10
7 Leeds 6 2 3 1 8 5 3 9
8 Hull 6 2 3 1 8 6 2 9
9 Liverpool 6 2 3 1 7 7 0 9
10 Ipswich 6 3 0 3 9 12 -3 9
11 Newcastle 6 2 2 2 10 13 -3 8
12 Crystal Palace 6 2 1 3 9 12 -3 7
13 Man United 6 1 3 2 9 9 0 6
14 Coventry 6 2 0 4 5 11 -6 6
15 Nott'm Forest 6 1 2 3 5 8 -3 5
16 Aston Villa 6 1 2 3 6 11 -5 5
17 Sunderland 6 1 1 4 6 12 -6 4
18 Bournemouth 6 0 3 3 7 13 -6 3
19 Tottenham 6 0 3 3 3 9 -6 3
20 Fulham 6 0 2 4 6 10 -4 2

Recent Trends

Bournemouth L L D D D

  • Last Match: L vs Chelsea (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Newcastle (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Everton (Goals: 1 - 1)

Sunderland L L L D W

  • Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 3 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Brentford (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Bournemouth

xG (avg) 1.92
xGA (avg) 1.25
Clean Sheets 0

Sunderland

xG (avg) 2.15
xGA (avg) 1.95
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Bournemouth are the likeliest winners at 48%, with a draw at 26% and a Sunderland win at 25%. The goals lean is towards over 2.5, at 56%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest separator, with Bournemouth also holding small advantages in attack and defence. Their home results have been modest, but they have averaged 1.9 expected goals at home against 1.0 actual goals, suggesting their chance creation has not yet brought many goals. They have also kept no clean sheets in their last five matches. Bournemouth’s latest result was a 1-5 defeat at Chelsea, while Sunderland have lost three straight: 0-2 to Brighton, 3-5 at Man City and 0-2 to Arsenal. Sunderland’s defeat at Man City showed they can score away from home, but their run of losses and Bournemouth’s home advantage leave the hosts favoured.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Bournemouth
Goals in last 5 matches
Sunderland
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is the lean at 56%. Bournemouth’s attacking and chance-creating play is the strongest team-specific reason for that outlook, with the league scoring environment also pushing towards goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Bournemouth
Corners in last 5 matches
Sunderland
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 10.0 corners. Recent matches have varied, from six total in Bournemouth’s meeting with Liverpool to 12 in Sunderland’s game against Brighton.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Bournemouth
Shots in last 5 matches
Sunderland
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected total is 24 shots. Recent totals include 19 in Bournemouth’s match at Chelsea and 25 in Sunderland’s home game against Brighton, close to that estimate.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Bournemouth wins by X goals. Negative = Sunderland wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Bournemouth vs Sunderland with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Bournemouth vs Sunderland
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Bournemouth are favoured by a goal margin of about 0.6, or roughly half a goal in the home side’s favour. That reflects a home lean rather than a strong expectation of a one-sided result.

Final Prediction

Sunderland’s away chance creation could upset the forecast if it turns into goals. Bournemouth’s lack of clean sheets in their last five gives the visitors a possible route to do that.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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