Premier League 2024-2025: Brighton vs Newcastle Prediction

Brighton

Home Team
54%
VS

Newcastle

Away Team
23%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Liverpool 34 25 7 2 80 32 48 82
2 Arsenal 34 18 13 3 63 29 34 67
3 Newcastle 34 19 5 10 65 44 21 62
4 Man City 34 18 7 9 66 43 23 61
5 Chelsea 34 17 9 8 59 40 19 60
6 Nott'm Forest 33 18 6 9 53 39 14 60
7 Aston Villa 34 16 9 9 54 49 5 57
8 Fulham 34 14 9 11 50 46 4 51
9 Brighton 34 13 12 9 56 55 1 51
10 Bournemouth 34 13 11 10 53 41 12 50
11 Brentford 33 13 7 13 56 50 6 46
12 Crystal Palace 34 11 12 11 43 47 -4 45
13 Wolves 34 12 5 17 51 61 -10 41
14 Man United 34 10 9 15 39 47 -8 39
15 Everton 34 8 14 12 34 41 -7 38
16 Tottenham 34 11 4 19 62 56 6 37
17 West Ham 34 9 9 16 39 58 -19 36
18 Ipswich 34 4 9 21 33 74 -41 21
19 Leicester 34 4 6 24 27 76 -49 18
20 Southampton 34 2 5 27 25 80 -55 11

Recent Trends

Brighton ✅ ❌ ⚪ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs West Ham (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: ⚪ vs Leicester (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Aston Villa (Goals: 0 - 3)

Newcastle ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ipswich (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Man United (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Leicester (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brighton

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.01
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.37
# Clean Sheets: 0

Newcastle

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.39
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.55
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Brighton and Newcastle is predicted to favor the home team, with a 54.0% probability of a Brighton victory. The match is also expected to be high-scoring, with a 61.0% chance of producing over 2.5 goals. As it stands, Brighton occupies the 9th position in the Premier League table, while Newcastle is in a commendable 3rd place, showcasing a competitive edge.

Match Analysis

Brighton's recent form has been a mixed bag. They secured a home win against West Ham with a 3-2 scoreline, displayed resilience in a 2-2 draw against Leicester, but faltered against Brentford, losing 4-2 away. Over their last five matches, Brighton has averaged 1.8 goals scored and conceded per game, with no clean sheets, indicating both attacking prowess and defensive vulnerabilities. The team’s expected goals metric of 2.014 suggests they are creating quality chances, which could be crucial against Newcastle. Newcastle, on the other hand, is coming off a strong defensive performance, having kept clean sheets in two of their last three matches. They defeated Ipswich 3-0 and Crystal Palace 5-0 at home, though they stumbled in a 4-1 away loss to Aston Villa. Newcastle's recent average of 1.0 goals scored per game contrasts sharply with their clean sheet record, indicating a reliance on solid defensive structures. Their expected goals conceded of 1.548 suggests potential defensive frailties that Brighton could exploit.

Final Prediction

Brighton holds a slight edge due to their home advantage and ability to create scoring opportunities, as highlighted by their favorable expected goals statistics. A key factor to watch will be Brighton's ability to capitalize on Newcastle's occasional defensive lapses, especially given Newcastle's mixed away form. Fans can anticipate a high-energy match with potential for multiple goals, as both sides look to solidify their standings in the league.