Premier League 2025-2026: Chelsea vs Burnley Prediction - 21 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Chelsea

Home Team
98%
VS

Burnley

Away Team
1%
Draw: 1%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Shots: 25.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 27 17 7 3 52 20 32 58
2 Man City 26 16 5 5 54 24 30 53
3 Aston Villa 26 15 5 6 37 27 10 50
4 Man United 26 12 9 5 47 37 10 45
5 Chelsea 26 12 8 6 47 30 17 44
6 Liverpool 26 12 6 8 41 35 6 42
7 Brentford 26 12 4 10 40 35 5 40
8 Everton 26 10 7 9 29 30 -1 37
9 Bournemouth 26 9 10 7 43 45 -2 37
10 Newcastle 26 10 6 10 37 37 0 36
11 Sunderland 26 9 9 8 27 30 -3 36
12 Fulham 26 10 4 12 35 40 -5 34
13 Crystal Palace 26 8 8 10 28 32 -4 32
14 Brighton 26 7 10 9 34 34 0 31
15 Leeds 26 7 9 10 36 45 -9 30
16 Tottenham 26 7 8 11 36 37 -1 29
17 Nott'm Forest 26 7 6 13 25 38 -13 27
18 West Ham 26 6 6 14 32 49 -17 24
19 Burnley 26 4 6 16 28 51 -23 18
20 Wolves 27 1 7 19 18 50 -32 10

Recent Trends

Chelsea D W W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Wolves (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs West Ham (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Brentford (Goals: 2 - 0)

Burnley W L L D D

  • Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs West Ham (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Liverpool (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Chelsea

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.36
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.01
# Clean Sheets: 1

Burnley

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.42
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.16
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Chelsea are strong favourites here, with a massive 98.0% probability of a home win against 19th‑placed Burnley, who are fighting to avoid relegation. The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction at 62.0%, suggesting a game with chances and goals despite a big gap in quality. Chelsea come into this fifth in the table on 44 points, chasing the Champions League spots, while Burnley sit on 18 points and badly need something from Stamford Bridge.

Match Analysis

Chelsea look in good shape over their last three league matches: a home draw with Leeds (2-2) followed by wins over Wolves (3-1 away) and West Ham (3-2 at home). They’ve hit at least two goals in each of those games and created plenty, with 19, 15 and 14 shots respectively, plus consistent corner numbers at home (4 and 9). The advanced metrics back up the attacking resurgence: they’re averaging 2.0 goals scored and 2.358 expected goals over their last five matches, suggesting their forward play is generating regular, high‑quality chances, even if they’re conceding a bit more than they’d like (1.6 goals and 2.01 xG against, with just one clean sheet). Burnley’s form is much more volatile. They edged a chaotic 3-2 win away at Crystal Palace despite being heavily outshot 21-8 and out-cornered 8-2, but that result is sandwiched between a 0-2 home defeat to West Ham and a 0-3 reverse at Sunderland. Across the last five matches, they are averaging only 1.0 goal scored and a very low 0.42 expected goals, while conceding 1.8 goals and 2.16 xG per game. That points to a side struggling badly to create meaningful chances and often relying on moments rather than sustained pressure.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Chelsea
Goals in last 5 matches
Burnley
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours over 2.5 goals at 62.0%, and recent scorelines support that over 2.5 prediction. All three of Chelsea’s last matches have cleared the 2.5 line (4, 4 and 5 total goals), reflecting their balance of sharp attack and leaky defence. Burnley have gone over 2.5 in two of their last three (3-2 vs Palace, 0-3 vs Sunderland, 0-2 vs West Ham). With Chelsea averaging 2.0 scored and 1.6 conceded, plus 2.358 xG for and 2.01 xG against, while Burnley concede 1.8 per game on 2.16 xG against, the numbers point to enough chances for three or more goals.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Chelsea
Shots in last 5 matches
Burnley
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 25.43 total shots, a solid figure that matches a busy attacking contest. Chelsea’s last three matches have contained 23, 26 and 25 shots in total, showing a consistent pattern of chance creation both for and against. Burnley have been involved in more erratic shot counts (29, 24 and 19), often allowing opponents to rack up attempts. Given Chelsea’s strong attacking xG numbers and Burnley’s low 0.42 xG for but high 2.16 xG against, this shots prediction aligns with a game where Chelsea do most of the shooting.

Final Prediction

Chelsea’s superior league position, attacking form, and much stronger xG profile give them a clear edge and underpin the 98.0% home‑win prediction. Burnley’s struggles to create chances and their vulnerability at the back make an upset look unlikely. The key factor to watch will be how early Chelsea can convert pressure into goals; if they strike first, Burnley may be forced into a more open game that suits the hosts even more.

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