Premier League 2026-2027: Coventry vs Fulham Prediction - 24 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Coventry

Home Team
31%
VS

Fulham

Away Team
43%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 26.0
Expected Spread: -0.4

Why the Model Leans Fulham

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Coventry
Chance creation (xG data) +9.6 Fulham
Attack +5.6 Fulham
Results & dominance +4.1 Fulham
Defense +3.7 Fulham

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Fulham. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Fulham attack & chance creation +2.3 Over
Fulham defense +1.3 Over
Coventry defense +0.7 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 55% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 7 7 0 0 19 7 12 21
2 Arsenal 7 6 0 1 11 5 6 18
3 Brighton 7 5 1 1 23 5 18 16
4 Chelsea 7 4 1 2 17 13 4 13
5 Liverpool 7 3 3 1 9 8 1 12
6 Brentford 7 2 4 1 13 8 5 10
7 Leeds 7 2 4 1 9 6 3 10
8 Everton 7 2 4 1 8 7 1 10
9 Hull 7 2 3 2 8 7 1 9
10 Ipswich 7 3 0 4 11 15 -4 9
11 Newcastle 7 2 2 3 10 14 -4 8
12 Aston Villa 7 2 2 3 7 11 -4 8
13 Man United 7 1 4 2 10 10 0 7
14 Crystal Palace 7 2 1 4 9 17 -8 7
15 Bournemouth 7 1 3 3 9 13 -4 6
16 Tottenham 7 1 3 3 6 10 -4 6
17 Coventry 7 2 0 5 6 14 -8 6
18 Fulham 7 1 2 4 7 10 -3 5
19 Nott'm Forest 7 1 2 4 5 9 -4 5
20 Sunderland 7 1 1 5 6 14 -8 4

Recent Trends

Coventry L W W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Newcastle (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 0 - 1)

Fulham W L D D L

  • Last Match: W vs Hull (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ipswich (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Coventry

xG (avg) 1.30
xGA (avg) 1.82
Clean Sheets 1

Fulham

xG (avg) 1.24
xGA (avg) 1.54
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Fulham are the likeliest winners at 43%, with Coventry on 31% and a draw on 26%. The goals forecast leans over 2.5, with a 55% probability.

Match Analysis

Coventry’s home advantage is a counterweight, but Fulham rate better in chance creation, attack and defensive results. The visitors’ away scoring has lagged behind their chances: they average 0.3 goals from 1.2 expected goals away from home. Coventry, meanwhile, have conceded 2.3 goals per home game, a potential opening for Fulham. Coventry’s 4-1 win over Newcastle and 1-0 victory at Nott'm Forest came before the latest 1-3 loss at Tottenham, leaving a mixed picture of threat and vulnerability. Fulham most recently beat Hull 1-0 after losing 1-2 at Ipswich, and will need to turn their chances into goals more reliably on the road.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Coventry
Goals in last 5 matches
Fulham
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is a slight lean at 55%. Fulham’s attacking threat and the league’s scoring environment push the forecast upward, though Coventry’s defensive record at home offers some resistance.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Coventry
Corners in last 5 matches
Fulham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.7 corners. Fulham’s latest match, a 1-0 win over Hull, produced 12 corners, including 10 for Fulham.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Coventry
Shots in last 5 matches
Fulham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected total is 26 shots. Coventry’s latest game against Tottenham had 28 in total, while Fulham’s win over Hull featured 23.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Coventry wins by X goals. Negative = Fulham wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Coventry vs Fulham with expected spread of -0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Coventry vs Fulham
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about four-tenths of a goal in Fulham’s favour. That reflects their stronger overall profile despite Coventry’s home advantage.

Final Prediction

Fulham’s away finishing is the clearest route for Coventry to upset the forecast. If the visitors continue to score well below the chances they create, Coventry’s home advantage could matter more.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel