Coventry
Championship · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time; second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Season simulation
2025-26 — what the model simulated, and what happened
🏆 Final: #1 of 24 in Championship 95 pts · 28W–11D–7L · GD +52
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Championship simulation — every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Coventry?
On script 2025-26 · 41 predicted matches · backtest
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade — and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Coventry's results were 18.4% easier to call than the Championship average. How this is measured.
| Market | Coventry | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 61.0% | 45.9% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 51.0% |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | 52.4% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season. This season predates the club's live coverage, so the record comes from the launch backtest.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Championship | #2 | 1498 | 1693 | 1674 |
| 2024-25 | Championship | #5 | 1454 | 1626 | 1557 |
| 2023-24 | Championship | #17 | 1557 | 1636 | 1460 |
| 2022-23 | Championship | #6 | 1480 | 1593 | 1584 |
| 2021-22 | Championship | #14 | 1520 | 1564 | 1476 |
| 2020-21 | Championship | #11 | 1407 | 1514 | 1505 |
| 2019-20 | League One | #1 | 1521 | 1692 | 1692 |
| 2018-19 | League One | #11 | 1410 | 1552 | 1507 |
| 2017-18 | League Two | #7 | 1522 | 1583 | 1538 |
| 2016-17 | League One | #23 | 1482 | 1523 | 1401 |
| 2015-16 | League One | #9 | 1507 | 1618 | 1502 |
| 2014-15 | League One | #13 | 1419 | 1506 | 1482 |
| 2013-14 | League One | #19 | 1479 | 1601 | 1416 |
| 2012-13 | League One | #15 | 1501 | 1609 | 1492 |
| 2011-12 | Championship | #22 | 1453 | 1465 | 1368 |
| 2010-11 | Championship | #15 | 1462 | 1532 | 1472 |
| 2009-10 | Championship | #22 | 1462 | 1569 | 1419 |
| 2008-09 | Championship | #22 | 1472 | 1546 | 1417 |
| 2007-08 | Championship | #22 | 1483 | 1538 | 1437 |
| 2006-07 | Championship | #19 | 1558 | 1558 | 1435 |
| 2005-06 | Championship | #7 | 1502 | 1554 | 1554 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches — model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | at Watford | W Coventry 50.1% · draw 25.6% | W ✓ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vs Wrexham | W Coventry 76.9% · draw 15.3% | W ✓ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vs Portsmouth | W Coventry 78.8% · draw 13.8% | W ✓ |
| Apr 17, 2026 | at Blackburn | W Coventry 53.6% · draw 24.5% | D ✗ |
| Apr 11, 2026 | vs Sheffield Wednesday | W Coventry 95.2% · draw 3.6% | D ✗ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Hull | W Coventry 45.8% · draw 27.8% | D ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Derby | W Coventry 69.5% · draw 20.3% | W ✓ |
| Mar 21, 2026 | at Swansea | W Coventry 40.7% · draw 29.4% | W ✓ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Southampton | W Coventry 43.6% · draw 30.3% | L ✗ |
| Mar 11, 2026 | vs Preston | W Coventry 70.0% · draw 18.4% | W ✓ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/coventry">Championship title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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