Premier League 2026-2027: Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest Prediction - 11 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Crystal Palace

Home Team
34%
VS

Nottingham Forest

Away Team
40%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 24.9
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Nottingham Forest

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Crystal Palace
Chance creation (xG data) +11.5 Nottingham Forest
Attack +3.4 Nottingham Forest
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +2.0 Crystal Palace
Defense +1.9 Nottingham Forest

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Nottingham Forest. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Crystal Palace attack & chance creation +4.0 Under
Crystal Palace defense +3.1 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Form & results +2.0 Under
Nottingham Forest defense +1.6 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 54% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 5 5 0 0 13 5 8 15
2 Arsenal 5 4 0 1 8 4 4 12
3 Brighton 5 3 1 1 16 5 11 10
4 Brentford 5 2 3 0 10 4 6 9
5 Leeds 5 2 3 0 7 3 4 9
6 Liverpool 5 2 3 0 7 4 3 9
7 Everton 5 2 3 0 6 3 3 9
8 Hull 5 2 2 1 6 4 2 8
9 Newcastle 5 2 2 1 9 9 0 8
10 Chelsea 5 2 1 2 10 12 -2 7
11 Ipswich 5 2 0 3 7 11 -4 6
12 Man United 5 1 2 2 8 8 0 5
13 Nott'm Forest 5 1 2 2 4 5 -1 5
14 Sunderland 5 1 1 3 6 10 -4 4
15 Crystal Palace 5 1 1 3 6 11 -5 4
16 Aston Villa 5 1 1 3 4 9 -5 4
17 Bournemouth 5 0 3 2 6 8 -2 3
18 Coventry 5 1 0 4 1 10 -9 3
19 Fulham 5 0 2 3 5 8 -3 2
20 Tottenham 5 0 2 3 2 8 -6 2

Recent Trends

Crystal Palace D L W L L

  • Last Match: D vs Leeds (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ipswich (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 0 - 2)

Nottingham Forest L W D D L

  • Last Match: L vs Coventry (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Leeds (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Crystal Palace

xG (avg) 0.94
xGA (avg) 2.30
Clean Sheets 1

Nottingham Forest

xG (avg) 2.83
xGA (avg) 1.19
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Nott'm Forest are the most likely winners at 40%, with Crystal Palace at 34% and a draw at 27%. The lean is under 2.5 goals, at 54%.

Match Analysis

The main counterweight to Forest’s slight advantage is Palace’s home setting, but the visitors have been creating the better chances. Their recent attacking output was clear in a 0-1 defeat to Coventry, when they still managed 24 shots, and a 2-1 win away to Aston Villa. Palace drew 0-0 at Leeds but also lost 2-3 at home to Ipswich, leaving defensive reliability a concern. The underlying numbers point in different directions on finishing: Palace have scored more than their chances suggest, while Forest have created more than their goals indicate. If Forest turn that chance creation into goals, Palace may struggle to keep pace.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Crystal Palace
Goals in last 5 matches
Nottingham Forest
Goals in last 5 matches
Under 2.5 goals is the lean at 54%. Palace’s attack and chance creation are the strongest reason for that expectation, while Forest’s defensive record also points toward a lower total.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Crystal Palace
Corners in last 5 matches
Nottingham Forest
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.7 corners. Recent matches have produced mixed totals, but Palace’s and Forest’s latest games both included a steady number of corners, supporting a projection around ten.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Crystal Palace
Shots in last 5 matches
Nottingham Forest
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is about 25 shots. Forest’s 24 attempts against Coventry and 22 against Aston Villa show how their attacking approach can drive a high count, even when the goals do not follow.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Crystal Palace wins by X goals. Negative = Nottingham Forest wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.1 goals in Nott'm Forest’s favour. That is a very narrow projected advantage, consistent with Palace’s home benefit and Forest’s stronger chance creation pulling in opposite directions.

Final Prediction

Forest’s ability to convert the chances they are generating could decide this one. Palace have recently scored beyond their underlying chance quality, so if that finishing continues, the home side can overturn the slight away lean.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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