Premier League 2026-2027: Ipswich vs Fulham Prediction - 10 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Ipswich

Home Team
42%
VS

Fulham

Away Team
29%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 10.3
Expected Shots: 27.5
Expected Spread: +0.1

Why the Model Leans Ipswich

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Ipswich
Results & dominance +3.3 Fulham
Defense +3.2 Ipswich
Attack +3.0 Fulham
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +1.7 Ipswich

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 59% for Ipswich. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Fulham defense +4.1 Over
Ipswich attack & chance creation +2.4 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Fulham attack & chance creation +1.4 Over
Form & results +0.9 Over

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 56% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 5 5 0 0 13 5 8 15
2 Arsenal 5 4 0 1 8 4 4 12
3 Brighton 5 3 1 1 16 5 11 10
4 Brentford 5 2 3 0 10 4 6 9
5 Leeds 5 2 3 0 7 3 4 9
6 Liverpool 5 2 3 0 7 4 3 9
7 Everton 5 2 3 0 6 3 3 9
8 Hull 5 2 2 1 6 4 2 8
9 Newcastle 5 2 2 1 9 9 0 8
10 Chelsea 5 2 1 2 10 12 -2 7
11 Ipswich 5 2 0 3 7 11 -4 6
12 Man United 5 1 2 2 8 8 0 5
13 Nott'm Forest 5 1 2 2 4 5 -1 5
14 Sunderland 5 1 1 3 6 10 -4 4
15 Crystal Palace 5 1 1 3 6 11 -5 4
16 Aston Villa 5 1 1 3 4 9 -5 4
17 Bournemouth 5 0 3 2 6 8 -2 3
18 Coventry 5 1 0 4 1 10 -9 3
19 Fulham 5 0 2 3 5 8 -3 2
20 Tottenham 5 0 2 3 2 8 -6 2

Recent Trends

Ipswich L W L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Man United (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 2 - 1)

Fulham D D L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Man United (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sunderland (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ipswich

xG (avg) 1.09
xGA (avg) 0.96
Clean Sheets 0

Fulham

xG (avg) 0.97
xGA (avg) 1.68
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Ipswich are the likeliest winners at 42%, with Fulham at 29% and the draw at 28%. The goals forecast leans over 2.5 at 56%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest separator, giving Ipswich a narrow forecast lead. Their defensive numbers also offer some encouragement: they have allowed 0.96 expected goals per game across their last five, compared with 1.68 for Fulham. Ipswich have still conceded 11 goals in five league matches, so keeping Fulham’s attack quiet will matter. Fulham’s recent results show they can compete with strong opposition, having drawn 1-1 with Man United and 0-0 with Liverpool. Their scoring has lagged behind their chances: an average of 0.0 goals in the last five against 1.0 expected goals. Ipswich, meanwhile, have a recent win over Crystal Palace, but lost to Everton and Liverpool.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Ipswich
Goals in last 5 matches
Fulham
Goals in last 5 matches
The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56%. Fulham’s defensive numbers point towards a more open match, while the league scoring environment also supports goals. Ipswich’s attack and chance creation temper that expectation, so the over is a lean rather than a strong call.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Ipswich
Corners in last 5 matches
Fulham
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 10.4 corners in total. Recent matches have produced varied corner counts, but Fulham’s 13 corners conceded against Man United and Ipswich’s 10 total against Everton suggest opportunities at both ends.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Ipswich
Shots in last 5 matches
Fulham
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 27 shots in total. Fulham had 25 shots against Crystal Palace, while Ipswich recorded 13 against Everton, indicating both sides can contribute to a busy shot count.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Ipswich wins by X goals. Negative = Fulham wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Ipswich vs Fulham with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Ipswich vs Fulham
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.1 goals in Ipswich’s favour. That points to a very narrow home advantage, consistent with the close win probabilities.

Final Prediction

Fulham’s ability to turn their chances into goals could upset the forecast. Their recent expected-goals figure suggests there may be more attacking threat than their scoring record shows.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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