Premier League 2026-2027: Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest Prediction - 23 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Ipswich

Home Team
31%
VS

Nottingham Forest

Away Team
43%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 26.2
Expected Spread: -0.1

Why the Model Leans Nottingham Forest

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Ipswich
Chance creation (xG data) +9.7 Nottingham Forest
Attack +6.2 Nottingham Forest
Results & dominance +5.1 Nottingham Forest
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +3.8 Ipswich

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 58% for Nottingham Forest. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Ipswich attack & chance creation +4.6 Under
Ipswich defense +3.0 Over
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Nottingham Forest attack & chance creation +1.6 Over
Nottingham Forest defense +0.8 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 7 7 0 0 19 7 12 21
2 Arsenal 7 6 0 1 11 5 6 18
3 Brighton 7 5 1 1 23 5 18 16
4 Chelsea 7 4 1 2 17 13 4 13
5 Liverpool 7 3 3 1 9 8 1 12
6 Brentford 7 2 4 1 13 8 5 10
7 Leeds 7 2 4 1 9 6 3 10
8 Everton 7 2 4 1 8 7 1 10
9 Hull 7 2 3 2 8 7 1 9
10 Ipswich 7 3 0 4 11 15 -4 9
11 Newcastle 7 2 2 3 10 14 -4 8
12 Aston Villa 7 2 2 3 7 11 -4 8
13 Man United 7 1 4 2 10 10 0 7
14 Crystal Palace 7 2 1 4 9 17 -8 7
15 Bournemouth 7 1 3 3 9 13 -4 6
16 Tottenham 7 1 3 3 6 10 -4 6
17 Coventry 7 2 0 5 6 14 -8 6
18 Fulham 7 1 2 4 7 10 -3 5
19 Nott'm Forest 7 1 2 4 5 9 -4 5
20 Sunderland 7 1 1 5 6 14 -8 4

Recent Trends

Ipswich L W L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Man City (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Fulham (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Everton (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Liverpool (Goals: 0 - 2)

Nottingham Forest L L L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Arsenal (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Coventry (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Ipswich

xG (avg) 1.15
xGA (avg) 1.23
Clean Sheets 0

Nottingham Forest

xG (avg) 3.14
xGA (avg) 1.54
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Nott'm Forest are the likeliest winners at 43%, ahead of Ipswich at 31%, with the draw at 26%. The lean is over 2.5 goals, but only narrowly, at 51%.

Match Analysis

Ipswich's home advantage is the main counter to Nott'm Forest's stronger chance creation and attack. Forest have averaged 3.1 expected goals away from home but scored 1.7 goals, suggesting their chances have outpaced their finishing. That could leave an opening for Ipswich if they make the most of their home setting. Ipswich's latest outing was a 2-3 defeat away to Man City, after a 2-1 home win over Fulham, and they have kept no clean sheets in five matches. Nott'm Forest arrive after three straight defeats, most recently 0-1 to Arsenal, following a 1-3 defeat away at Crystal Palace and a 0-1 loss to Coventry.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Ipswich
Goals in last 5 matches
Nottingham Forest
Goals in last 5 matches
Over 2.5 goals is a slight lean at 51%. Ipswich's attack and chance creation are the strongest pull toward fewer goals, but their defensive record and Nott'm Forest's attacking threat keep the contest finely balanced.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Ipswich
Corners in last 5 matches
Nottingham Forest
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is 9.7 corners in total. Nott'm Forest's recent matches produced 14, 13 and 8 corners, supporting a healthy count, while Ipswich's latest game had five corners combined.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Ipswich
Shots in last 5 matches
Nottingham Forest
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected match total is 26 shots. Recent figures support a busy game: Ipswich's match at Man City had 27 shots, while Nott'm Forest recorded 24 shots against Crystal Palace alone.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Ipswich wins by X goals. Negative = Nottingham Forest wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projected margin is near level, with Nott'm Forest ahead by about 0.1 goal. That slight away lean fits the 43% away-win chance, while Ipswich's 31% reflects their chance of making home advantage count.

Final Prediction

Ipswich could overturn the forecast if they exploit Nott'm Forest's away defending, which has seen them concede an average of 2.0 goals. Forest's ability to create chances away from home is the counter, but their recent scoring return suggests Ipswich may get opportunities of their own.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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