Premier League 2025-2026: Leeds vs Chelsea Prediction
Leeds
Home Team
11%
VS
Chelsea
Away Team
77%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5:
46%
Under 2.5:
54%
Goal:
53%
No Goal:
47%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 7 | 18 | 30 |
| 2 | Man City | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 24 |
| 5 | Brighton | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | Sunderland | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 22 |
| 7 | Man United | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 21 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | Crystal Palace | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Brentford | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 19 |
| 11 | Bournemouth | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 19 |
| 12 | Tottenham | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 18 |
| 13 | Newcastle | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 18 |
| 14 | Everton | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 15 | Fulham | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 17 |
| 16 | Nott'm Forest | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 12 |
| 17 | West Ham | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 11 |
| 18 | Leeds | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 25 | -12 | 11 |
| 19 | Burnley | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 10 |
| 20 | Wolves | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 28 | -21 | 2 |
Recent Trends
Leeds
- Last Match: vs Man City (Goals: 2 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 1 - 3)
- 4th Last Match: vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 5th Last Match: vs West Ham (Goals: 2 - 1)
Chelsea
- Last Match: vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Burnley (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Wolves (Goals: 3 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Tottenham (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Sunderland (Goals: 1 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Leeds
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.66
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.78
# Clean Sheets:
0
Chelsea
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.77
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.08
# Clean Sheets:
3
Key Prediction Insights
Chelsea is predicted to emerge victorious in their upcoming clash against Leeds, with a dominant 77.0% probability of winning. Leeds, currently situated in the 18th position of the Premier League standings, face a formidable opponent in Chelsea, who are placed 3rd in the league. The game is also expected to yield fewer than 2.5 goals, indicating a potentially tight affair.
Match Analysis
Recent performances suggest contrasting trajectories for both teams. Leeds have been enduring a challenging spell with three consecutive losses, including a 3-1 defeat to Nott'm Forest and a 2-1 loss at home to Aston Villa. Their struggle is highlighted by an inability to keep a clean sheet in their last five games, coupled with an average of 1.4 goals conceded per match. Despite having a relatively promising expected goals metric of 1.656, they have failed to capitalize on their chances.
On the flip side, Chelsea have shown resilience and form, notching up two victories and a draw in their last three encounters. They held Arsenal to a 1-1 draw and secured wins against Burnley and Wolves, showcasing strong defensive capabilities with three clean sheets in their last five outings. Their offensive unit has been fairly effective, averaging 1.8 goals per game and maintaining a solid expected goals figure of 1.77, which indicates their potential to break through Leeds’ defense.
Final Prediction
Chelsea's recent form and league standing make them the favorites in this matchup. Their defensive solidity and efficient attack are key factors that give them an edge over a struggling Leeds side. A crucial aspect to watch is Chelsea's ability to convert their expected goals into actual goals, which could be the deciding factor in securing a victory and maintaining their position in the top echelons of the Premier League.