Premier League 2025-2026: Newcastle vs Aston Villa Prediction

Newcastle

Home Team
70%
VS

Aston Villa

Away Team
14%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Arsenal 22 15 5 2 40 14 26 50
2 Man City 22 13 4 5 45 21 24 43
3 Aston Villa 22 13 4 5 33 25 8 43
4 Liverpool 22 10 6 6 33 29 4 36
5 Man United 22 9 8 5 38 32 6 35
6 Chelsea 22 9 7 6 36 24 12 34
7 Brentford 22 10 3 9 35 30 5 33
8 Newcastle 22 9 6 7 32 27 5 33
9 Sunderland 22 8 9 5 23 23 0 33
10 Everton 22 9 5 8 24 25 -1 32
11 Fulham 22 9 4 9 30 31 -1 31
12 Brighton 22 7 9 6 32 29 3 30
13 Crystal Palace 22 7 7 8 23 25 -2 28
14 Tottenham 22 7 6 9 31 29 2 27
15 Bournemouth 22 6 9 7 35 41 -6 27
16 Leeds 22 6 7 9 30 37 -7 25
17 Nott'm Forest 22 6 4 12 21 34 -13 22
18 West Ham 22 4 5 13 24 44 -20 17
19 Burnley 22 3 5 14 23 42 -19 14
20 Wolves 22 1 5 16 15 41 -26 8

Recent Trends

Newcastle ⚪ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ⚪ vs Wolves (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Leeds (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Burnley (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Man United (Goals: 0 - 1)

Aston Villa ❌ ⚪ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Everton (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: ⚪ vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Nott'm Forest (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Arsenal (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Newcastle

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.35
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.46
# Clean Sheets: 2

Aston Villa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.17
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.19
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Newcastle and Aston Villa is anticipated to tilt in favor of the home team, Newcastle, with a 70% probability of winning. This match is predicted to feature over 2.5 goals with a 51% likelihood. Currently, Newcastle is positioned 8th in the league, while Aston Villa stands strong at 3rd, both vying for crucial points in their campaign.

Match Analysis

Newcastle enters this match with a recent mixed bag of performances. They secured a solid victory against Leeds, 4-3, and a convincing 2-0 win over Crystal Palace at home, showcasing their attacking prowess. A goalless draw against Wolves away, however, highlights their occasional struggle to find consistency. Analytically, Newcastle has averaged 2.4 goals per game in their last five outings, with an expected goal tally of 2.348, emphasizing their offensive potential. Defensively, they've kept two clean sheets in the same period, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per game. On the other hand, Aston Villa's recent form has been slightly less predictable. Following a 1-0 home defeat to Everton and a goalless draw against Crystal Palace, they bounced back with a decisive 3-1 victory over Nottingham Forest. With an average of 2 goals scored and conceded per match in their last five games, they complement their attacking capabilities with defensive vulnerability. The Villans have an expected goals figure of 2.166, while their defense has been porous, with an expected goals conceded of 2.19, reflecting their recent inconsistencies.

Final Prediction

Newcastle’s home advantage and their recent attacking form give them the edge over Aston Villa in this encounter. The Magpies' ability to capitalize on their scoring opportunities, combined with Villa's defensive lapses, could be decisive. Keep an eye on Newcastle's forward line, which could be the key factor in breaking through Aston Villa's defense and securing a vital victory.