Premier League 2026-2027: Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Prediction - 18 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Nottingham Forest

Home Team
32%
VS

Arsenal

Away Team
42%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 43%
No Goal: 57%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 25.4
Expected Spread: -0.3

Why the Model Leans Arsenal

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Nottingham Forest
Defense +5.6 Arsenal
Team strength (Elo & Glicko) +5.2 Arsenal
Chance creation (xG data) +4.3 Arsenal
Results & dominance +2.3 Arsenal

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 57% for Arsenal. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Under 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Arsenal defense +1.5 Under
Arsenal attack & chance creation +0.6 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 50% for Under 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 6 6 0 0 16 5 11 18
2 Arsenal 6 5 0 1 10 5 5 15
3 Brighton 6 4 1 1 18 5 13 13
4 Brentford 6 2 4 0 12 6 6 10
5 Everton 6 2 4 0 8 5 3 10
6 Chelsea 6 3 1 2 15 13 2 10
7 Leeds 6 2 3 1 8 5 3 9
8 Hull 6 2 3 1 8 6 2 9
9 Liverpool 6 2 3 1 7 7 0 9
10 Ipswich 6 3 0 3 9 12 -3 9
11 Newcastle 6 2 2 2 10 13 -3 8
12 Crystal Palace 6 2 1 3 9 12 -3 7
13 Man United 6 1 3 2 9 9 0 6
14 Coventry 6 2 0 4 5 11 -6 6
15 Nott'm Forest 6 1 2 3 5 8 -3 5
16 Aston Villa 6 1 2 3 6 11 -5 5
17 Sunderland 6 1 1 4 6 12 -6 4
18 Bournemouth 6 0 3 3 7 13 -6 3
19 Tottenham 6 0 3 3 3 9 -6 3
20 Fulham 6 0 2 4 6 10 -4 2

Recent Trends

Nottingham Forest L L W D D

  • Last Match: L vs Crystal Palace (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Coventry (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Tottenham (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Liverpool (Goals: 2 - 2)

Arsenal W L W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Leeds (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Brighton (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Sunderland (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Chelsea (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Aston Villa (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Nottingham Forest

xG (avg) 0.94
xGA (avg) 0.88
Clean Sheets 1

Arsenal

xG (avg) 1.58
xGA (avg) 1.49
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Arsenal are the most likely winners at 42%, with Nott'm Forest on 32% and a draw on 26%. The goals forecast leans narrowly under 2.5, at 50%, so there is little to separate the two totals.

Match Analysis

Arsenal’s stronger defending, team quality and chance creation pull the forecast their way, while Nott'm Forest’s home advantage keeps the hosts in contention. Forest have scored no goals across their recent home sample despite creating 0.9 expected goals per match there, suggesting their finishing has fallen short of the chances available. Arsenal have conceded one goal per recent away match, but their away expected goals against average is 1.5, so they have also allowed opportunities. Nott'm Forest’s latest two defeats, 1-3 away to Crystal Palace and 0-1 at home to Coventry, followed a 2-1 win at Aston Villa. Arsenal responded to a 0-3 loss at Brighton with a 2-1 home win over Leeds. Forest’s low recent home scoring is a concern, but the latest Palace match also showed they can generate plenty of shots, with 24.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Nottingham Forest
Goals in last 5 matches
Arsenal
Goals in last 5 matches
The lean is under 2.5 goals at 50%, though the balance is close. Arsenal’s defensive record is the clearest reason for the under, while the league scoring environment pushes slightly the other way.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Nottingham Forest
Corners in last 5 matches
Arsenal
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 9.2 corners. Recent match totals have varied: Nott'm Forest’s last three games produced 13, 8 and 7 corners, while Arsenal’s produced 6, 11 and 6.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Nottingham Forest
Shots in last 5 matches
Arsenal
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 25 shots. Nott'm Forest had 24 shots in each of their two latest matches, pointing to a potentially busy contest even if their scoring has been limited.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Nottingham Forest wins by X goals. Negative = Arsenal wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal with expected spread of -0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.3 goals in Arsenal’s favour. That is a modest away lean, rather than a forecast of a clear gap between the teams.

Final Prediction

Nott'm Forest’s ability to turn home chances into goals could change the outlook. If their finishing improves on the recent home returns, Arsenal’s advantage in the forecast may prove too slight.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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